回复：【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月【台风吧】

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 958 HPA
AT 54N 164E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NE 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 164E TO 58N 163E 58N 169E 55N 176E 52N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 176E TO 49N 179E 46N 180E 43N 179W.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 176E TO 46N 174E 43N 169E 40N 164E 35N 158E 33N
151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 151E TO 32N 146E 32N 142E 30N 137E 30N 132E
30N 128E 29N 125E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 57N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 59N 176E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.

IP属地:福建

113楼2026-10-23 08:44

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 56N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 57N 166E TO 59N 168E 59N 173E 57N 178E 54N 180E.
WARM FRONT FROM 54N 180E TO 49N 176W 43N 175W.
COLD FRONT FROM 54N 180E TO 50N 179E 44N 174E 37N 165E 33N 157E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 157E TO 31N 150E 30N 143E 30N 138E 29N 134E
30N 128E 29N 124E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

IP属地:福建

114楼2026-10-23 11:22

EC发癫报出烟花转温后爆发到C4

IP属地:福建

115楼2026-10-23 11:46

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA 60N168E 962 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM SE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE OF A LINE FROM 59N177E TO
49N177W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N TO
622N W OF 171W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 57N177E 964 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E
AND NE OF A FRONT FROM 64N170W TO 60N166W TO 50N166W WINDS 35 TO
50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE W AND NW OF A LINE FROM
36N180W TO 54N158W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 63N177W 982 MB. N OF 34N W OF
155W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.

IP属地:福建

116楼2026-10-23 13:43

【2026年10月22日北大温气简报】
---
...RACHEL将在冰岛以南海域减弱...
RACHEL已经来到了冰岛西南方向海域，目前其中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压984百帕. 预计，它将向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，后续在冰岛南部近海退化并被南侧新系统（目前为低压区BOELO）吞并. 受其影响，冰岛格陵兰岛附近海域有8-10级暴风，冰岛南部沿海有小范围降雪.
---
...美国东部近海的温带低压加强为温带风暴11T并转化为副热带风暴JOSEPHINE...
此前位于美国东部近海的温带低压在加强为温带风暴11T后继续原地滞留，此后在昨天（10月21日，UTC，下同）傍晚前后被NHC判定转化为副热带风暴并命名为JOSEPHINE. 预计，它将向东北方向移动，由于它即将再度转化为温带风暴，后续将对其独立发布警报.
---
...温带风暴12T生成并穿过加拿大拉布拉多半岛...
一个此前位于加拿大内陆的温带扰动在哈得孙湾加强为温带风暴12T，此后穿过拉布拉半岛北部进入北大西洋海域，目前其中心附近最大风力35节（18米/秒），中心最低气压997百帕. 预计，它将向东移动，强度有所加强. 受其影响，未来格陵兰岛南部近海将有7-8级大风和小范围小到中雪.
---
...AUSTEN快速加强为一级温带气旋......即将登陆英国西南部...
此前位于副热带风暴JOSEPHINE东北方向的一道低压槽因预报将影响英国而被MET OFFICE命名成为本风季首个风暴AUSTEN，此后它在今天凌晨加强为温带风暴，中午进一步加强为E1，目前其中心附近最大风力85节（42米/秒），中心最低气压981百帕，它中心附近最大风力基于13时10分扫过的AMSR-2读取的中心西南侧81.8节风速判定. 预计，它将继续向东北方向移动，强度变化不大，即将在英国西南部登陆，此后穿过英国南部陆地进入北海，以后被BOELO吞并. 受其影响，未来24小时英吉利海峡两岸将有10-12级暴风，比利时、荷兰、卢森堡等国全境和德国西部将有大范围7-9级大风. 同时，西欧陆地还有大范围小到中雨.
---
...温带风暴14T在北海生成...
一个此前松散的混乱低压区在掠过英国进入北海后逐渐整合出一个显著的中心，并加强为温带风暴14T，目前其中心附近最大风力40节（20米/秒），中心最低气压987百帕. 预计，它将快速北上，强度逐渐减弱，很快将退化为一个无中心的低压区.受其影响，挪威南部有小到中雨，其近海有7-8级大风.

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端118楼2026-10-23 13:56

昨天该气旋（论坛：NP08）登陆勘察加半岛时，Ozernaya整3小时最低海平面气压959.0hPa，还有多个测站跌破970hPa

IP属地:福建

119楼2026-10-23 13:57

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 57N 172E BERING SEA MOVING NE 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 59N 169E TO 61N 177E 60N 180E 56N 175W.
WARM FRONT FROM 56N 175W TO 50N 172W 45N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 56N 175W TO 50N 176W 46N 180E 40N 173E 35N 165E 31N
156E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 156E TO 29N 144E 30N 136E 31N 128E 29N
123E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

IP属地:福建

120楼2026-10-23 18:43

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA 57N172E 960 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM SE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE OF A LINE FROM 60N180W TO
55N175W TO 50N175W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 42N TO 63N W OF 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 57N172E 971 MB. W AND NW OF A
LINE FROM 37N180W TO 54N154W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NW OF AREA 65N177W 986 MB. N OF 32N W OF
161W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.

IP属地:福建

121楼2026-10-23 18:48

***Storm Austen***
#StormAusten has made landfall in Northern France at around noontime and will continue to push its way northeastward until being absorbed by Storm Boelo. Despite that the storm has weakened, gusts of 65kt and rainfall accumulations over 50mm will still be possible throughout the next 24 hours on the North Sea coasts. Several Orange and Yellow warnings are still active in Great Britain, southern Ireland and western Continental Europe. It is advised that residents in these regions to follow further instructions from national or regional weather services.
***Storm Boelo***
#StormBoelo is now an Extratropical Depression but will rapidly intensify into a high-end Category 3 Extratropical Cyclone by this time tomorrow, when it will pass by or make landfall over Scotland. Models suggest that a large part of the Scottish Highland will experience gusts of 60~70kt, with maxima between 80 and 85kt over terrain, while Norway may also see isolated locations with gusts exceeding 70kt. An amber warning for wind has been issued by the Met Office and covers much of Scotland. It is advised that residents in the regions mentioned above to follow further insrtuctions from national or regional weather services and be up-to-date about any changes to the warnings.
***
Between Iceland and Scotland: Another area of low pressure has been forecasted to follow the footstep of Storm Boelo and affect northwestern Scotland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models has significantly increased the maximum wind gust experienced by Scotland over the past 24 hours, and now the forecasted impacts during this system may be higher than that of Boelo, with widespread gusts of 65~75kt over Scottish Highlands. The system has a 30% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-2 days and a 50% chance in the next 0-5 days.
（下续）

IP属地:英国

来自Android客户端122楼2026-10-23 22:20

收起回复

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 58N 174E BERING SEA MOVING NE 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.

IP属地:福建

123楼2026-10-24 00:59

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA 58N175E 960 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 62N176W TO 56N171W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
ELSEWHERE W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 50N166W TO 58N160W WIND 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M. ALSO W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 37N172W TO
57N155W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 62N178E 972 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF A LINE FROM 59N162W TO 53N161W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 43N162W TO 60N150W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS TO 4 M...EXCEPT FROM 42N TO 51N W OF 173E SEAS 4 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL N OF THE AREA. N OF 60N W OF 161W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.

IP属地:福建

124楼2026-10-24 01:20

【2026年10月23日北太温气简报】
---
...小熊的残余环流将与北美洲陆地上新低压槽合并......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
小熊的残余环流已经在昨天（10月22日，北京时间，下同）晚上前后登陆美国加利福尼亚，登陆后它逐渐退化，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压1007百帕. 预计，它将逐渐退化并被北侧低压槽吞并，此后该低压槽将按此前预报的那样加强为温带风暴，远期可能进入北大西洋. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
---
...10N已穿过俄罗斯堪察加半岛...
10N已经在昨天下午短暂地加强为E3，此后随即登陆堪察加半岛南部，并在今天凌晨前后出海，目前其中心附近最大风力65节（33米/秒），中心最低气压962百帕. 预计，它将先向东北方向移动，此后转向偏北方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐减弱，以后在楚科奇半岛东部登陆. 受其影响，堪察加半岛、楚科奇半岛和美国阿拉斯加都将有大范围小到中雪，阿拉斯加西部沿海将有10-12级暴风，楚科奇半岛沿海有8-9级大风局部10级暴风.
---
...蔷琵将擦过中国台湾近海......热带扰动97W即将加强为烟花...
热带洋面上，今年第30号台风蔷琵即将擦过中国台湾近海，它将在浙江近海转向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，以后登陆日本并转化. 热带扰动97W已经被JMA发布GW，即将加强为第31号台风烟花，它以后将达到很高的强度. 东北太平洋热带风暴VANCE将继续加强并缓慢向北移动，可能在墨西哥西南方向海域滞留.

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端125楼2026-10-24 01:39

SW01-Adam (FUB：Katja)
Min. Pressure=1004hpa
Max. Wind=35kt
Max. 24h Precipitation=711mm
Fatalities≥5, Damages=Unknown

IP属地:英国

来自Android客户端126楼2026-10-24 06:30

收起回复

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA 60N175E 960 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E
AND NE OF A FRONT FROM 64N171W TO 54N167W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS
4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 40N174W TO 57N155W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M...EXCEPT N OF 46N W OF 175W
SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 63N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 720 NM S
AND 540 NM E QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 240 NM E AND NE OF A FRONT FROM
59N160W TO 50N160W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 4 M...EXCEPT N OF
52N W OF 178W SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS WELL N OF AREA.

IP属地:福建

127楼2026-10-24 09:33

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 962 HPA
AT 60N 176E BERING SEA MOVING NNE 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.

IP属地:福建

128楼2026-10-24 09:33

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回复：【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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