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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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IP属地:福建159楼2026-10-26 18:46
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    ...GALE WARNING...
    .LOW 63N174W 987 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 660 NM
    SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
    840 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED NE OF AREA.


    IP属地:福建160楼2026-10-26 19:03
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      2026-11-16 07:06:15
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      Off the northwest coast of Scotland: An intense low of high-end Category 2 intensity will bring some windy conditions to the west coast of Great Britain. Albeit the presence of 2 yellow wind warnings issued by the Met Office, these warnings are unlikely to be upgraded into amber warnings. This is due to the continued downtrending of most models in terms of gusts, showing around 65kt in several less-populated locations and an extremely small likelihood of exceeding 75kt. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-5 days.


      IP属地:英国来自Android客户端161楼2026-10-26 23:31
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        【2026年10月26日北太温气简报】
        ---
        ...10N移入北冰洋......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
        10N已经在昨天(10月25日,北京时间,下同)晚上前后登陆俄罗斯楚科奇半岛,此后移入北冰洋,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压991百帕. 预计,它将继续向北移动,强度逐渐减弱. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度进入监测区,否则不会再对其发布警报.
        ---
        ...蔷琵减弱为低压区......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
        蔷琵已经在昨天晚上减弱为温带低压,此后继续减弱,今天早上进一步减弱为低压区,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压1006百帕. 预计,它即将登陆日本九州岛,以后可能在日本群岛南部近海分裂,未来有可能再度发展,但发展起来的系统是否可以被视为蔷琵还有待观察. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
        ---
        ...12N将在白令海峡附近减弱...
        12N已经快速移动到白令海西部,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压982百帕. 预计,它将继续快速向东北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,即将在今晚穿过白令海峡并登陆阿拉斯加,此后迅速减弱消散.
        ---
        ...温带风暴13N在日本以东洋面生成......将快速爆发加强成为四级温带气旋...
        一道此前位于日本近海的低压槽在东北行过程中快速整合加强成为温带风暴13N,目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压993百帕. 预计,它将向东北或偏北方向移动,强度快速加强,即将在明天加强为E4,以后登陆并穿过楚科奇半岛进入北冰洋.
        ---
        ...温带风暴14N在中北太平洋生成...
        一个此前位于美国阿留申群岛以南海域的温带扰动在东行过程中一度短暂加强为温带低压,此后它减弱的残余环流转向南移动,并在今天早上短暂加强为温带风暴14N,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压999百帕. 预计,它将向南缓慢移动,即将减弱为温带低压,以后在海上逐渐减弱消散.
        ---
        ...烟花快速加强......热带扰动东行进入中北太平洋并成为热带风暴OLANA...
        热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花已经快速加强,它将逐渐加速向西移动,强度继续加强,以后可能在东经140度附近逐渐转向. 西北太平洋日界线附近的一个热带扰动进入中太后光速被编号为94C和03C,此后被命名为OLANA,它将向东移动,强度逐渐减弱. VANCE已经减弱为热带风暴,它将向北移动,强度继续减弱.


        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端162楼2026-10-27 00:09
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          ...STORM WARNING...
          .LOW W OF AREA 60N173E 952 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
          WITHIN 300 NM E AND SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55
          KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 65N W
          OF 165W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 9 M...HIGHEST
          NEAR 58N180W.
          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL NW OF AREA. N OF
          59N W OF 177W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
          WELL NW OF AREA.
          ...STORM WARNING...
          .36 HOUR FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH LOW WELL W
          AND NW OF AREA. W OF A LINE FROM 45N177W TO
          54N180W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 51N167E 960 MB.
          FROM 50N TO 54N W OF 178W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS
          4.5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 60N W OF 168W
          WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
          ...GALE WARNING...
          .LOW 58N138W 1017 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 900 NM
          S AND SE...AND 480 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS
          20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
          .18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N131W 1012 MB. WITHIN 420
          NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N127W 1012 MB. FROM 47N
          TO 53N BETWEEN 129W AND 136W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
          SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 44N TO 58N E OF
          139W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N128W 1013 MB. FROM 44N
          TO 51N BETWEEN 126W AND 138W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
          TO 2.5 M.
          ...GALE WARNING...
          .LOW W OF AREA 44N174E MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 40N
          TO 45N W OF 178W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
          .18 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 52N172W 1010 MB.
          FROM 50N TO 57N BETWEEN 162W AND 169W WINDS 25
          TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N169W 1005 MB. FROM 52N
          TO 62N BETWEEN 160W AND 168W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
          SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N TO 43N BETWEEN 158W
          AND 175W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED N OF AREA WITH A
          NEW LOW TO FORM 55N158W 1013 MB. FROM 48N TO 58N
          BETWEEN 150W AND 162W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.


          IP属地:福建163楼2026-10-27 20:20
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            ***
            For the first time in 40 days, no storm naming is expected in the 5 following days.


            IP属地:英国来自Android客户端164楼2026-10-27 22:37
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              【2026年10月27日北太温气简报】
              ---
              ...12N已穿过白令海峡并减弱消散......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
              12N已经在昨天(10月26日,北京时间,下同)晚上穿过白令海峡,此后在美国阿拉斯加登陆,登陆后它已经减弱消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
              ---
              ...13N快速爆发加强为四级温带气旋......将登陆并穿过俄罗斯楚科奇半岛...
              13N在一天时间内练跳四级,目前其中心附近最大风力70节(35米/秒),中心最低气压947百帕. 预计,它将继续向东北方向移动,强度缓慢减弱,即将登陆楚科奇半岛,此后它将穿过楚科奇半岛进入北冰洋,强度快速减弱.
              ---
              ...14N减弱为温带低压......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
              14N在昨天短暂的巅峰结束后便减弱为温带低压,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压1004百帕. 预计,它将继续向南缓慢移动,强度继续减弱. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
              ---
              ...烟花将逐渐加强......OLANA减弱为热带低压...
              热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花进行了一次眼壁置换,强度暂时有所减弱,但它后续将再度开始加强,同时移速加快,以后可能在东经140度附近再度减速,是转向还是西南行还有待观望. 中北太平洋的OLANA已经减弱为热带低压,它将继续减弱. 东北太平洋的VANCE将向北移动,强度逐渐减弱.


              IP属地:广东来自Android客户端165楼2026-10-27 23:24
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                【2026年10月28日北太温气简报】
                ---
                ...13N位于俄罗斯楚科奇半岛上空......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
                13N已经在昨天(10月27日,北京时间,下同)晚上以E2强度登陆楚科奇半岛,此后继续北上,目前其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压981百帕. 预计,它将继续向北移动,即将出海进入北冰洋,强度先缓慢减弱,10月30日前后可能短暂再度加强为E1,以后在北冰洋逐渐消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
                ---
                ...烟花将继续加强......VANCE继续靠近墨西哥沿海...
                热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花已结束眼壁置换,将继续开始加强,它后续将先继续向西北方向移动,此后在东经140度附近减速. 东北太平洋热带风暴VANCE将靠近墨西哥沿海,强度继续减弱.


                IP属地:广东来自Android客户端166楼2026-10-28 19:53
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:15
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                  ***
                  No storm is expected to be named in the next 5 days.


                  IP属地:英国来自Android客户端167楼2026-10-28 23:27
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                    ...STORM WARNING...
                    .12 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 51N165E 952 MB. W OF A LINE FROM
                    57N175E TO 53N172W TO 45N175W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
                    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N173E 961 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 300
                    NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE
                    WITHIN 480 NM E AND 720 NM S QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A
                    FRONT FROM 51N171W TO 59N178E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
                    .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N172W 967 MB. FROM 45N TO 53N W OF 167W
                    WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 12.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 50N174W.
                    ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 57N W OF 161W AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 420
                    NM W QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 10 M. ALSO N OF A
                    LINE FROM 43N155W TO 31N180W AND N OF 57N W OF ALASKA...WINDS 20
                    TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.


                    IP属地:福建168楼2026-10-29 00:55
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                      STORM WARNING.
                      DEVELOPING LOW 970 HPA
                      AT 49N 163E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NNE 20 KNOTS.
                      OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 49N 163E TO 47N 170E 45N 172E.
                      WARM FRONT FROM 45N 172E TO 42N 176E 38N 178E.
                      COLD FRONT FROM 45N 172E TO 41N 170E 37N 164E 30N 152E.
                      STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 152E TO 27N 148E 25N 143E.
                      WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                      AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
                      SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
                      FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 51N 164E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                      MILES RADIUS.
                      FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 52N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                      MILES RADIUS.
                      ANOTHER LOW 972 HPA AT 47N 153E
                      MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.


                      IP属地:福建169楼2026-10-29 00:55
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                        STORM WARNING.
                        DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
                        AT 51N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NE 10 KNOTS.
                        OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 164E TO 54N 170E 53N 176E 49N 180E 48N 180E.
                        WARM FRONT FROM 48N 180E TO 46N 177W 42N 175W.
                        COLD FRONT FROM 48N 180E TO 46N 180E 40N 175E 36N 169E 32N 163E.
                        STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 163E TO 31N 160E 29N 154E 27N 150E 26N
                        146E.
                        WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW.
                        EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW FOR NEXT 24
                        HOURS.
                        FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 52N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                        MILES RADIUS.
                        FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 55N 177W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                        MILES RADIUS.


                        IP属地:福建170楼2026-10-29 10:58
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                          ...STORM WARNING...
                          .LOW W OF AREA 51N164E 961 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND INTENSIFYING
                          NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM 44N TO 51N BETWEEN 175W AND 180W AND FROM
                          51N TO 56N W OF 180W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5
                          M...HIGHEST NEAR 53N171E.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N178E 965 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E AND 540 NM
                          S QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
                          240 NM NE AND 480 NM E QUADRANTS...W OF A LINE FROM 53N168W TO
                          41N180W...AND WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A FRONT FROM 54N166W TO
                          60N180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 M...EXCEPT NE OF FRONT
                          SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
                          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N171W 971 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 780 NM
                          S AND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
                          SEAS 5.5 TO 11 M...HIGHEST NEAR 49N172W. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO
                          55N W OF 160W AND N OF 55N BETWEEN 168W AND 179E WINDS 25 TO 40
                          KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5 M. ALSO N OF A LINE FROM 40N159W TO 30N180W
                          EXCLUDING AREA BETWEEN ALASKA AND 167W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
                          2.5 TO 6.5 M.


                          IP属地:福建171楼2026-10-29 10:59
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                            IP属地:福建172楼2026-10-29 11:03
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:15
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                              ...STORM WARNING...
                              .LOW W OF AREA 52N165E 953 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
                              FROM 45N TO 56N W OF 174W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
                              SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 42N TO 58W W
                              OF 171W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
                              .12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N173W 960 MB. FROM
                              48N TO 54N W OF 176W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7
                              TO 12 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N177W 966 MB. FROM
                              47N TO 53N W OF 174W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8
                              TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 40N TO 58N W OF 166W...
                              AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF ALASKA FROM
                              59N TO 60N...WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 M...
                              EXCEPT FROM 59N TO 60N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W
                              COAST OF ALASKA SEAS TO 3.5 M. ALSO W AND NW
                              OF A LINE FROM 64N161W TO 55N154W TO 46N160W
                              TO 35N180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 10 M...
                              HIGHEST NEAR 51N178W.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N164W 972 MB. WITHIN
                              840 NM S AND SW...AND 600 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS
                              WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE N OF
                              39N W OF 152W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
                              ...STORM WARNING...
                              LOW 55N159W 1012 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 51N
                              TO 61N BETWEEN 151W AND 163W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
                              SEAS TO 3.5 M.
                              .06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N157W 1012 MB. N OF 58N
                              BETWEEN 151W AND 153W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
                              TO 3 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. N OF 48N
                              BETWEEN 148W AND 154W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO
                              3.5 M.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR 60N148W
                              991 MB. WITHIN 150 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35
                              TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E
                              AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
                              ALSO N OF 46N BETWEEN 138W AND 148W WINDS 20 TO
                              30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
                              ...GALE WARNING...
                              .LOW 65N164W 995 MB MOVING N 20 KT. OVER BRISTOL
                              BAY E OF 161W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
                              ELSEWHERE N OF 62N E OF 168W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
                              TO 2.5 M.
                              .12 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
                              MOVED N OF AREA.
                              ...GALE WARNING...
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N W OF 165W WINDS
                              25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO
                              38N W OF 160W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.


                              IP属地:福建173楼2026-10-29 12:27
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