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【2026年10月25日北太温气简报】
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...10N将移入北冰洋...
10N目前仍然位于俄罗斯楚科奇半岛近海，其中心附近最大风力40节（20米/秒），中心最低气压983百帕. 风速判定基于0013Z过境的METOP-B ASCAT仪器在中心远处扫描到的30-35节，气压判定基于中心西侧陆地上一个985百帕的测站. 目前GFS和ECMWF均支持它将穿过陆地进入北冰洋，但GFS给出的24小时后它的强度略低，结构也更狭长. 它们也都认为该系统将在48小时后在北冰洋减弱为温带低压，此后逐渐减弱消散.
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...蔷琵转化为温带风暴...
蔷琵已经在今天（10月25日，北京时间，下同）凌晨转化为温带风暴，目前其中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压996百帕. 0027Z过境的METOP-B ASCAT显示其中心西侧仍有大范围40-45节风力区域，2125Z过境的HY-2B几乎完全扫偏，0436Z的OSCAT则读取出了67节的风力，但大概率是近岸异常风旗，不具备参考性，系统中心附近则有大范围35-40节风力区域；气压则基于GFS 0000Z的初始场的996百帕气压. GFS和ECMWF目前一致认为它将转向东北方向移动，明天前后登陆日本，以后被日本以东新系统吞并.
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...12N在俄罗斯堪察加半岛南部陆地生成...
一道此前缺乏组织性的低压槽在靠近堪察加半岛后快速整合发展并登陆，在陆地上成为温带气旋12N，目前其中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压982百帕. 0017Z前后过境的METOP-B ASCAT和0039Z前后过境的METOP-C ASCAT的风场扫描结果均在40节上下，结合GFS初始场给予50节风力；气压基于中心附近50千米的一个陆地测站测得的982百帕气压. ECMWF和GFS一致认为它将向东北方向移动，强度缓慢减弱，以后穿过白令海峡.
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...烟花将逐渐加强......VANCE强度变化不大...
热带洋面上，今年第31号台风烟花将继续向西北转西方向移动，强度逐渐加强，它未来大概率能达到比较高的强度，远期则转向东北方向移动. 东北太平洋飓风VANCE将缓慢移动并逐渐减弱.
---
...10N将移入北冰洋...
10N目前仍然位于俄罗斯楚科奇半岛近海，其中心附近最大风力40节（20米/秒），中心最低气压983百帕. 风速判定基于0013Z过境的METOP-B ASCAT仪器在中心远处扫描到的30-35节，气压判定基于中心西侧陆地上一个985百帕的测站. 目前GFS和ECMWF均支持它将穿过陆地进入北冰洋，但GFS给出的24小时后它的强度略低，结构也更狭长. 它们也都认为该系统将在48小时后在北冰洋减弱为温带低压，此后逐渐减弱消散.
---
...蔷琵转化为温带风暴...
蔷琵已经在今天（10月25日，北京时间，下同）凌晨转化为温带风暴，目前其中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压996百帕. 0027Z过境的METOP-B ASCAT显示其中心西侧仍有大范围40-45节风力区域，2125Z过境的HY-2B几乎完全扫偏，0436Z的OSCAT则读取出了67节的风力，但大概率是近岸异常风旗，不具备参考性，系统中心附近则有大范围35-40节风力区域；气压则基于GFS 0000Z的初始场的996百帕气压. GFS和ECMWF目前一致认为它将转向东北方向移动，明天前后登陆日本，以后被日本以东新系统吞并.
---
...12N在俄罗斯堪察加半岛南部陆地生成...
一道此前缺乏组织性的低压槽在靠近堪察加半岛后快速整合发展并登陆，在陆地上成为温带气旋12N，目前其中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压982百帕. 0017Z前后过境的METOP-B ASCAT和0039Z前后过境的METOP-C ASCAT的风场扫描结果均在40节上下，结合GFS初始场给予50节风力；气压基于中心附近50千米的一个陆地测站测得的982百帕气压. ECMWF和GFS一致认为它将向东北方向移动，强度缓慢减弱，以后穿过白令海峡.
---
...烟花将逐渐加强......VANCE强度变化不大...
热带洋面上，今年第31号台风烟花将继续向西北转西方向移动，强度逐渐加强，它未来大概率能达到比较高的强度，远期则转向东北方向移动. 东北太平洋飓风VANCE将缓慢移动并逐渐减弱.
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GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 53N 163E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NE 40 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 57N 152E
MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA NEAR 55N166E 980 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 660 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
600 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 56N170E 984 MB. WITHIN 660
NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 63N172W 987 MB. WITHIN 660 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE
AND 840 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 56N 169E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NE 40 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 57N 155E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW W OF AREA 55N168E 978 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 50N TO 57N
BETWEEN 175W AND 171E WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE
W OF A LINE FROM 47N180W TO 56N166W TO 56N167W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 64N170W 997 MB. FROM 53N TO 63N BETWEEN
150W AND 174W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.
***Storm Boelo***
#StormBoelo has slightly weakened and will continue to travel eastward, with landfall in Norway expected tonight, and it should dissipate before tomorrow noontime. During this period, Scotland will continue to see intense gusts of 60~70kt at coasts, and up to 80kt over mountain peaks, while Norway will experience widespread gusts of 40kt and maxima between 60kt and 80kt (the latter value suggested by ICON which seems aggresive for most gusts and rainfall forecasts). Various Amber/Orange warnings are in place or will be in place shortly in almost all of the North Sea countries. It is strongly advised that residents in these countries to follow further instructions from national or local weather services.
***
Off the west coast of Scotland: A developing low in the mid-Atlantic will approach Faroe Islands through tomorrow night, and will bring some additional strong winds to northwestern Scotland. Model forecasts has shifted the track away from Scotland in more recent runs though, so the most likely scenario will be a widespread 50~60kt gust with local maxima 70~75kt. The met office has issued a yellow wind warning, and it is uncertain whether it will be upgraded to an amber warning based on the forecasted numbers above. The system has a 50% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-5 days.
***
Over Greece and the Aegean Sea: Models has now reached an agreement on the maximum 24h rainfall brought by a Genoa Low in this region from Monday to Tuesday, in the range between 100 and 150mm. While actual rainfall can be slightly higher, it is very unlikely that the impacts are sufficient to support it to be named. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.
#StormBoelo has slightly weakened and will continue to travel eastward, with landfall in Norway expected tonight, and it should dissipate before tomorrow noontime. During this period, Scotland will continue to see intense gusts of 60~70kt at coasts, and up to 80kt over mountain peaks, while Norway will experience widespread gusts of 40kt and maxima between 60kt and 80kt (the latter value suggested by ICON which seems aggresive for most gusts and rainfall forecasts). Various Amber/Orange warnings are in place or will be in place shortly in almost all of the North Sea countries. It is strongly advised that residents in these countries to follow further instructions from national or local weather services.
***
Off the west coast of Scotland: A developing low in the mid-Atlantic will approach Faroe Islands through tomorrow night, and will bring some additional strong winds to northwestern Scotland. Model forecasts has shifted the track away from Scotland in more recent runs though, so the most likely scenario will be a widespread 50~60kt gust with local maxima 70~75kt. The met office has issued a yellow wind warning, and it is uncertain whether it will be upgraded to an amber warning based on the forecasted numbers above. The system has a 50% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-5 days.
***
Over Greece and the Aegean Sea: Models has now reached an agreement on the maximum 24h rainfall brought by a Genoa Low in this region from Monday to Tuesday, in the range between 100 and 150mm. While actual rainfall can be slightly higher, it is very unlikely that the impacts are sufficient to support it to be named. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.
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GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 978 HPA
AT 59N 176E BERING SEA MOVING ENE 40 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
...GALE WARNING...
.LOW NW OF AREA 58N175E 978 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 50N TO 57N
BETWEEN 176W AND 171E WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE
W OF A LINE FROM 47N180W TO 56N164W TO 60N164W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA 68N165W 1005 MB. ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 61N 179W BERING SEA MOVING NE 35 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.
...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 61N179W 982 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 600 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 840 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED NE OF AREA.
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...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF THE AREA 53N25W 977 MB MOVING
NE 25 KT. FROM 39N TO 51N E OF 42W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5
TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 58N E OF 47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA 59N16W 954 MB. FROM 43N TO
54N E OF 54W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS
DESCRIBED BELOW WITH LOW 42N38W.
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