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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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Over northern France: While most models are not forecasting the scenario, GFS has been insisting on the organization of a trough into a compact low as it enters the British Channel on Tuesday evening, bringing 60kt gusts to the Channel Islands, northern France and Belgium. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Southwestern Group in the next 0~5 days.


IP属地:英国来自Android客户端341楼2026-11-15 22:43
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    94L的贴封了(感觉早了点,才刚消散48小时),只能放这里了()
    另注Bruna的应该明天才发,比Charles晚是因为我按生成时间顺序评的()
    SW03-Charles
    中文名:查尔斯
    Min. Pressure=987hpa
    Max. Wind=45kt
    Max. Gust=80kt (at Izaña, Balearic Islands, Spain)
    Max. 24h Precipitation≈497mm (at Areeiro, Madeira Islands, Portugal)
    Fatalities=1, Damages=Unknown




    IP属地:英国来自Android客户端342楼2026-11-16 00:37
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      2026-11-16 06:49:29
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      GALE WARNING.
      DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
      AT 38N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
      WARM FRONT FROM 38N 144E TO 39N 148E 39N 150E.
      COLD FRONT FROM 38N 144E TO 35N 142E 33N 139E 30N 137E 29N 135E 26N
      132E 23N 126E.
      WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW.
      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
      SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS.
      ANOTHER LOW 1006 HPA AT 40N 153E
      MOVING ENE 15 KNOTS.


      IP属地:福建343楼2026-11-16 00:46
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        ...STORM WARNING...
        .LOW 52N174W 992 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 47N TO 51N BETWEEN 171W
        AND 178W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N TO
        52N BETWEEN 160W AND 173E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6 M.
        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N149W 977 MB. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 240 NM S
        SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 43N
        TO 57N BETWEEN 139W AND 156W...EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED WITH LOW
        60N148W BELOW...WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST S OF
        CENTER.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MERGED WITH LOW
        56N145W DESCRIBED BELOW.
        ...STORM WARNING...
        .30 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 48N169E 967 MB. S OF
        53N W OF 177W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 4 M.
        .36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N174E 964 MB. FROM 43N TO 54N W OF 174W
        WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N178W 956 MB. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM E
        SEMICIRCLE...AND BETWEEN 90 NM AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40
        TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 M...HIGHEST S OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
        ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO 62N W OF 52W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6
        M.


        IP属地:福建344楼2026-11-16 00:53
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