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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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***Storm Bruna***
Storm #Bruna continues to weaken and is currently tracking slowly toward Galicia. An additional 100~150mm of rain will fall on Sierra de Gredos in the next 24 hours accompanied by gusts of up to 80kt, with other regions of Iberia experiencing around 50mm. A red warning for rain is still in place for Sierra de Gredos, and a couple of orange and yellow warnings for wind, rain, thunderstorm and rough seas on other parts of western Iberia. It is strongly advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from AEMET, IPMA or other regional weather services.
***Storm Charles***
Storm #Charles continued to move more northward than expected, indicating a higher chance of entering the left exit region of a subtropical jet streak, and hence rapidly intensify before making landfall in western Portugal as a Category 1 Extratropical Cyclone. Extreme rainfall at Madeira will persist through tonight, with the windward side seeing at least 200~300mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours. At its landfall, models suggest 60kt gusts at multiple sections of coastlines and 70~80kt right at its southeastern semicircle of maximum wind (which will mosty likely be in Setúbal or Lisbon), however these numbers may be underestimated due to resolution limitation to a compact system like Charles. Additionally, the formation of a sting jet may cause another round of strong wind of similar strength when the western semicircle of maximum wind moves in. Rainfall accumulations will also be high, with another 150mm over Sierra de Gredos, 300mm in Tuscany and up to 450mm at Primorje-Gorski Kotar, Croatia. Red warnings for rain has been issued for Madiera, Liguria and Tuscany, and red wind warings has been issued for southern districts of Portugal, with further orange warnings across Spain, France and western Balkans.
(超出字数,下续)


IP属地:英国来自Android客户端311楼2026-11-11 01:44
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    ...GALE WARNING...
    .LOW 55N139W 970 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT
    WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 50N E OF
    149W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.5 M.
    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N147W 970 MB. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
    WITH LOW 58N139W.
    .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
    DIMINISHED.


    IP属地:福建312楼2026-11-11 07:45
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      2026-11-16 07:06:09
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      为何南半球温气讨论的那么少


      IP属地:浙江313楼2026-11-11 08:29
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        我地要吃大win7 而且是正面登
        erm完了


        IP属地:中国台湾来自iPhone客户端314楼2026-11-11 08:49
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          ...GALE WARNING...
          .LOW 57N141W 972 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N
          SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
          SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NW...360 NM SW AND 180
          NM SW QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITONS
          DIMISHED.


          IP属地:福建来自Android客户端315楼2026-11-11 13:31
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            ...GALE WARNING...
            .LOW 58N143W 973 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N OF LOW
            CENTER WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
            S SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
            .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 974 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE
            WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
            .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITONS
            DIMISHED.


            IP属地:福建316楼2026-11-11 19:57
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              【2026年11月11日北太温气简报】
              ---
              ...烟花即将被07N吞并......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
              烟花从昨天(11月10日,北京时间,下同)下午起开始转向西北方向移动,同时强度逐渐减弱,此后靠近美国阿拉斯加南部并受地形影响迅速减弱退化,目前其中心附近最大风力20节(10米/秒),中心最低气压982百帕. 预计,它即将被东侧靠近的07N吞并. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
              ---
              ...07N重新整合为温带气旋......将转向西北方向移动并靠近阿拉斯加...
              07N在几天的双中心混战后终于重新整合为一个温带气旋,目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压971百帕. 预计,它将擦着加拿大西部海岸线转向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,明天晚上前后登陆阿拉斯加南部沿海并迅速减弱消散.
              ---
              ...温带风暴09N在日本以东洋面生成......将向东移动并快速加强...
              一个此前位于日本近海的温带扰动逐渐整合加强,并在昨天晚上加强为温带风暴09N,目前其中心附近最大风力60节(30米/秒),中心最低气压988百帕. 预计,它将向东北转东方向快速移动,强度快速加强,将在明天晚上加强为E3,此后在11月13日略微转向东南方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,靠近美国西部沿海,最终在11月15日前后被查帕卡吞并.
              ---
              ...查帕卡将转化为温带低压并快速加强......PENA继续向西移动...
              热带洋面上,今年第32号台风查帕卡正在快速向东北方向移动,它即将转化为温带风暴,此后继续向东北转东方向移动,在明天短暂减弱为温带低压并退化,明天晚上将会开始快速加强,此后在11月13日晚上前后加强为E2并可能长时间维持强度,11月16日凌晨起开始逐渐转向北移动并缓慢减弱,由于该系统转化为温带低压之后将很快加强为温带风暴,后续将对其独立发布警报. 另外,中北太平洋热带风暴PENA将继续向西移动,强度变化不大,以后越过国际日期变更线进入西北太平洋,但不一定能成为第33号台风.


              IP属地:广东来自Android客户端317楼2026-11-11 20:26
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                ***Storm Bruna***
                Storm #Bruna is still at Category 1 intensity, but will gradually weaken in the next few days, and cause some less significant impacts to Galicia and northern Portugal. Some regions will see 100~150mm more rain, and gusts of 30~40kt at coast or over exposed terrain. It is advised that residents in the 2 mentioned regions to follow further instructions from AEMET, IPMA or other regional weather services.
                ***Storm Charles***
                Storm #Charles has stayed south of the subtropical jet, and hence it only peaked as a high-end Extratropical Storm. However, severe wind damages are still expected in the district of Faro and Andalucia through this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 60~70kt along the coast and up to 80kt over mountains. Further north in Iberia, wind gusts should peak at 40~50kt. Meanwhile, a widespread area in western Iberia will see 50~100mm of rainfall during the next 24 hours, and Sierra de Gredos could have another 150~200mm accumulated on the totals of the last 5 days. In addition, rainfall expectation remains high over central Mediterranean coasts, with 2 day totals of 200~300mm expected along northeastern coast of the Gulf of Genoa, a similar amount in Montenegro and northern Albania, and 300~400mm along the northeastern coast of Gulf of Venice. Several red warnings for wind and rain or equivalence has been issued across the mentioned regions, with an addition of orange and yellow warnings for thunderstorms, coastal conditions and more. It is strongly advised that residents in Iberia and all regions along the central Mediterranean coast to follow further instructions from national or regional weather services, and be up-do-date with any changes to the warnings.


                IP属地:英国来自Android客户端318楼2026-11-11 23:19
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:09
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                  ...GALE WARNING...
                  .LOW 59N146W 970 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS
                  25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
                  DIMINISHED.


                  IP属地:福建319楼2026-11-12 02:13
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                    ...GALE WARNING...
                    .LOW 59N147W 971 MB MOVING N 10 KT. WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS
                    25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
                    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
                    DIMINISHED.


                    IP属地:福建320楼2026-11-12 11:27
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                      ...GALE WARNING...
                      .INLAND LOW 60N150W 978 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. N OF 59N BETWEEN 150W
                      AND 148W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 4 M.
                      .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
                      DIMINISHED.


                      IP属地:福建来自Android客户端321楼2026-11-12 21:54
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                        【2026年11月12日北太温气简报】
                        ---
                        ...07N已登陆美国阿拉斯加南部并即将减弱消散...
                        07N已经在今天(11月12日,北京时间,下同)早晨在阿拉斯加南部沿海登陆,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压971百帕. 预计,它将转向西南方向移动,并在陆地影响下逐渐退化,11月14日前后彻底被查帕卡吞并.
                        ---
                        ...09N加强为二级温带气旋...
                        09N已经来到阿留申群岛以南海域,并在一天内从温带风暴迅速加强为E2,目前其中心附近最大风力75节(38米/秒),中心最低气压963百帕. 预计,它将继续向东移动,强度先变化不大,11月14日起在美国西北方向海域快速减弱,并在当天晚上被靠近的查帕卡拉扯退化,最终被查帕卡吞并.
                        ---
                        ...查帕卡转化为温带低压......将向东北转东方向移动并逐渐加强...
                        查帕卡已经在昨天晚上转化为温带低压,在转化刚完成时它一度有很高的风速,但随着它逐渐并入北侧的低压槽,它的风速也快速降低,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压1004百帕. 预计,它将先向东北方向移动,将在今晚加强为温带风暴,此后在明天早晨起转向东移动,强度继续加强,11月14至15日前后加强到E2或E3,11月15日起在加拿大以西海域逐渐减速滞留,强度逐渐减弱,后续可能与西侧新系统发生藤原效应而转向西北方向移动.
                        ---
                        ...PENA将逐渐减弱...
                        热带洋面上,目前北太平洋只剩下热带风暴PENA在苟延残喘,它将继续向西移动,强度逐渐减弱,不太可能以热带风暴强度跨过国际日期变更线成为今年第33号台风.


                        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端322楼2026-11-12 22:55
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                          ***Storm Bruna***
                          Storm #Bruna is slowly approaching Galicia, and by the time it pass by the region it will have weakened into an Extratropical Depression. There are no extremely severe impacts expected, and most of Galicia and northern Portugal should receive around 50mm of rain from Bruna in the next 2 days, with mountains also experiencing gusts of 40~45kt. It its advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from AEMET, IPMA or other regional weather services.
                          ***Storm Charles***
                          After marching through Iberia, Storm #Charles is now over central Mediterranean waters and will move into central-eastern Europe through tonight. The main low-pressure center will dissipate before tomorrow noontime, but impacts from an associated Genoa Low will last slightly longer, alongside with the risks of flooding. An additional 200mm of rain will fall on thr northeastern coastal of Gulf of Venice, while Tuscany is facing another 100mm. Meanwhile, gusts can be as high as 80kt over the Apennines and the Dinaric Alps. Several red or orange-equivalent warnings for wind, rain and thunderstorm are active in Italy and all Balkan states except from Greece and Bulgaria, and it is strongly advised that residents in these countries to follow further instructions from national weather services.
                          ***
                          Over southern England or Northwestern France: Models are showing increasing confidence over the interaction between the jet stream and a low that has been forcasted to be steered across the Atlantic by its parent low for a considerable period, and hence it could reach a peak of Category 2 or 3 intensity. In this scenario, the south coast of Great British, Northwestern France and the lowlands could all be under the risk of 60~70kt wind gusts. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Western or Southwestern Group in the next 2-5 days.


                          IP属地:英国来自Android客户端323楼2026-11-12 23:58
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                            【2026年11月13日北太温气简报】
                            ---
                            ...07N已减弱消散......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
                            07N在昨天(11月12日,北京时间,下同)下午前后转向西南方向移动,短暂出海后再次登陆,此后它的残余环流在今天凌晨前后继续减弱,目前已无法确定其中心. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
                            ---
                            ...09N将转向并被查帕卡吞并...
                            09N已经在昨天下午短暂达到了E3,此后在昨晚减弱为E2,目前其中心附近最大风力65节(33米/秒),中心最低气压964百帕. 预计,它将先继续向东移动,今天晚上前后逐渐转向西北方向移动,强度继续减弱,明天晚上或11月15日早晨被查帕卡吞并.
                            ---
                            ...查帕卡将快速加强...
                            查帕卡已经在昨天晚上加强为温带风暴,目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压993百帕. 预计,它将转向东移动,强度快速加强,今天晚上加强为E1,明天下午前后加强为E2,11月15日加强为E3,此后开始在美国以西海域减速并逐渐转向北再转向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,11月16至17日与西侧新系统合并并在美国阿拉斯加以南海域回旋,强度先短暂加强,之后继续减弱.
                            ---
                            ...PENA的残余环流将进入西北太平洋...
                            热带洋面上,PENA在昨天晚上快速减弱,其残余环流即将进入西北太平洋,未来不太可能再度发展为热带风暴.


                            IP属地:广东来自Android客户端324楼2026-11-13 23:24
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:09
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                              ***Storm Bruna***
                              Storm #Bruna has weakened into an Extratropical Depression and will clip by Galicia tonight. Some locations in Galicia and northern Portugal may see an additional 50mm of rain and gusts can reach 40~50kt over mountains. It is advised that residents in this region to follow further instruction from AEMET, IPMA or other regional weather services.
                              ***Storm Charles***
                              Storm #Charles is moving over Eastern Europe and will soon be absorbed by another low to its north. Behind its center, an associated Genoa Low will drop 100~150mm of further precipitation on the windward side of the Dinaric Alps, and gusts may reach 65~75kt or higher at some isolated peaks. A large number of Orange warnings of various types are active over all Balkan states, Italy, Slovakia and Ukraine, and it is strongly advised that residents in the mentioned countries to follow further instructions from national weather services.
                              ***
                              Over southern UK and northern France: Models are showing a train of lows moving through the region through the course of next week, with some brining daily rainfall of 50~100mm, regional snowfall and wind gusts of 55~65kt along the coast. It remains unclear how these lows will interact with each other, nor is there clear trend strongly supporting any of them organizing itself enough to be granted a name. Model should be gradually progressing an agreement on the exact intensity of the first few of these lows through the weekend. These systems has a 20% overall chance of being named by the Western or Southwestern Group in the next 2-5 days.


                              IP属地:英国来自Android客户端325楼2026-11-13 23:33
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