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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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昨天凌晨北美西海岸附近出现了一个巅峰短暂的比较强的系统,有船舶在它的最大风区内实测10分钟风速78kt,近巅峰的HY-2B亦扫描出63.5kt的风速为今年NP温气截止目前最强的之一






IP属地:福建281楼2026-11-08 01:12
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    STORM WARNING.
    DEVELOPED LOW 984 HPA
    AT 47N 145E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 30 KNOTS.
    WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW.
    EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
    SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
    FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 47N 154E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
    MILES RADIUS.
    FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 48N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
    MILES RADIUS.
    ANOTHER LOW 992 HPA AT 50N 157E
    MOVING NNW 10 KNOTS.


    IP属地:福建282楼2026-11-08 02:39
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      2026-11-16 07:06:23
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      IP属地:福建283楼2026-11-08 02:45
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        CM01-Agneta(中文名:阿涅塔)
        Min. Pressure=999hpa
        Max. Wind=40kt
        Fatalities=0, Damages=Unknown




        IP属地:英国来自Android客户端284楼2026-11-08 06:50
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          STORM WARNING.
          DEVELOPED LOW 988 HPA
          AT 46N 149E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING ENE 35 KNOTS.
          WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW.
          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
          SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
          FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 47N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 65
          MILES RADIUS.
          FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 50N 170E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
          MILES RADIUS.
          ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 51N 156E
          MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.


          IP属地:福建285楼2026-11-08 08:32
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            IP属地:福建286楼2026-11-08 08:40
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              昨天凌晨达到巅峰的那个系统,FY-3E路过的时间不错,虽然近期C波段高风速区间可靠性偏低了点,但这张和实测能够相互印证,实测考虑船体高度以后至少能支持70kt定强,FY-3E的风场表现也接近,而且最大风区位置和实测位置完全吻合。





              IP属地:福建287楼2026-11-08 10:01
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                IP属地:福建288楼2026-11-08 10:12
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:23
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                  GALE WARNING.
                  DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
                  AT 46N 154E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING ENE 40 KNOTS.
                  WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW.
                  EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW FOR NEXT 24
                  HOURS.
                  ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 51N 155E
                  MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.


                  IP属地:福建来自Android客户端289楼2026-11-08 13:54
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                    ...STORM WARNING...
                    .LOW 45N161W 985 MB MOVING NE 35 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
                    FROM 30N TO 49N BETWEEN 180W AND 150W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5
                    TO 7 M.
                    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N145W 959 MB. FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN
                    150W AND 137W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ALSO FROM 32N TO
                    56N BETWEEN 155W AND 130W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
                    ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 50N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN
                    25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M.
                    .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N146W 958 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT
                    WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 51N E OF 156W
                    WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR LOW CENTER.


                    IP属地:福建来自Android客户端290楼2026-11-08 13:59
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                      【2026年11月8日北太温气简报】
                      ---
                      ...03N减弱为温带风暴并登陆美国阿拉斯加南部...
                      03N已经在昨天(11月7日,北京时间,下同)下午减弱为温带风暴并转向西移动,昨天半夜到今天凌晨再转向西南方向移动,并登陆了阿拉斯加南部,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压992百帕. 预计,它将在阿拉斯加南部近海回旋少动,强度继续减弱,以后被东侧北上的烟花吞并.
                      ---
                      ...烟花短暂减弱为温带风暴......将转向东北方向移动并快速加强...
                      烟花已经在昨天晚上穿过了国际日期变更线,同时减弱为温带风暴,此后它从今天凌晨起再度开始加强,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压987百帕. 预计,它将转向东北方向快速移动,强度快速加强,将在明天或11月10日加强到E3,此后在阿拉斯加南部近海回旋,强度快速减弱,11月11日前后被东侧新系统吞并.
                      ---
                      ...07N登陆俄罗斯堪察加半岛南部...
                      07N走了一条偏北的路径,因此它并没有像昨天预报那样从堪察加半岛以南海域掠过,而是靠近并登陆了堪察加半岛最南部,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压984百帕. 预计,它将继续向东移动,强度逐渐减弱,此后有可能中心置换到东侧新中心上并再度发展.
                      ---
                      ...08N超预期加强为三级温带气旋......即将登陆加拿大西部...
                      08N在加拿大以西海域快速加强,在今天早上加强为E3,目前其中心附近最大风力70节(35米/秒),中心最低气压959百帕. 预计,它将继续向东北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,明天早上登陆加拿大西部,登陆后迅速减弱消散.
                      ---
                      ...台风查帕卡生成......PENA有可能进入西北太平洋...
                      热带洋面上,今年第32号台风查帕卡已经在昨天中午被JMA命名,它是新世纪首个32号台风,它未来将先向西北方向移动,可能在今天下午到明天晚上迅速爆发,此后在明天晚上转向东北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱. 中北太平洋热带风暴PENA正在缓慢加强,它后期有可能进入西北太平洋成为今年第33号台风.


                      IP属地:广东来自Android客户端291楼2026-11-08 14:25
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                        明年的温带气旋季动画是否要加上未编号的E3+强温气?(如彩云和最近的08N)


                        IP属地:浙江292楼2026-11-08 16:59
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                          GALE WARNING.
                          DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
                          AT 47N 158E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING ENE 35 KNOTS.
                          WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                          AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
                          SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
                          ANOTHER LOW 990 HPA AT 49N 155E
                          MOVING SSW 10 KNOTS.


                          IP属地:福建293楼2026-11-08 21:11
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                            ***Storm Bruna***
                            Storm #Bruna will reach its peak intensity tonight as it should briefly intensify into a Category 2 Extratropical Cyclone. Its most signigicant impacts in Azores has now passed, but some hurricane-force gusts will still be present over mountains. Madeira, Canary Islands and some of the mountains in the Sierra de Gredos and Cantabrian Mountains will see gusts of similar strength but with possibility of 80~85kt maxima. Meanwhile, gale-force gusts will brust through most of the Iberian Peninsula. Rainfall will not be a severe issue in the short term, with only 50~80mm falling in parts of western Spain and the windward side of Madeira, though total accumulation may reach 200~300mm in the next 3 days, and hence the risks of flooding will be high. It is strongly advised that residents in all locations mentioned above to follow further instructions from national or regional weather services and be up-to-date about any changes to the warnings.
                            ***
                            Near the strait of Gibraltar and Southern European coasts: the remnants of invest 94L will continue eastward and bring additional impacts to southwestern Europe before entering central Mediterranan Sea. An additional 100~200mm rainfall is expected to be dropped on Madeira on Wednesday (right after the impact of Bruna ends), while southern Iberia will receive another 100mm, and parts of Italy, Croatia and Slovenia will potentially get 150~250mm later on. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Southwestern Group or the Central Mediterranean Group in the next 0-2 days and a 40% chance in the next 0-5 days.


                            IP属地:英国来自Android客户端294楼2026-11-08 23:57
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:23
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                              有C53爆吧,顶


                              IP属地:河北来自Android客户端295楼2026-11-09 01:15
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