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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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问一下这个是副热还是峡谷风,正常的风场看不到但是反演有


IP属地:广东来自Android客户端326楼2026-11-14 17:54
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    GALE WARNING.
    DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
    AT 29N 124E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING ENE 15 KNOTS.
    EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
    SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.


    IP属地:福建327楼2026-11-14 19:49
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      2026-11-16 07:06:17
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      ...STORM WARNING...
      .24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 49N178E 994 MB.
      WITHIN 420 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5
      M.
      .42 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 54N161W 978
      MB. WITHIN 180 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO
      7.5 M.
      .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 54N152W 978
      MB. WITHIN 180 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO
      8 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...WITHIN 660 NM
      SE AND S QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.


      IP属地:福建328楼2026-11-14 19:56
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        【2026年11月14日北太温气简报】
        ---
        ...09N即将被查帕卡吞并...
        09N已经来到美国西北方向海域,并逐渐转向西北方向移动,目前其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压976百帕. 预计,它将转向西北方向移动,并即将被查帕卡拉扯退化,最终被查帕卡吞并.
        ---
        ...查帕卡将继续加强...
        查帕卡已经在昨天(11月13日,北京时间,下同)晚上加强为E1,此后转向东移动,目前其中心附近最大风力65节(33米/秒),中心最低气压972百帕. 预计,它将先继续向东或东北方向移动,明天凌晨前后转向北移动,强度继续加强,最强可达E3,此后在明天晚上进一步转向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,11月17日前后可能与11N藤原并合并,但也有可能被11N直接吞并.
        ---
        ...温带风暴11N在俄罗斯堪察加半岛以东海域生成...
        一个此前位于俄罗斯萨哈林岛(库页岛)附近的温带扰动生成后向东北方向移动,并在昨天晚上加强为温带风暴11N,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压994百帕. 预计,它将向东北转东方向移动,强度逐渐加强,将在明天晚上前后加强为E1,此后在11月16日前后在美国阿留申群岛东南方向海域分裂出一个新中心去到阿拉斯加以南海域,并可能与查帕卡合并,此后快速减弱.


        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端329楼2026-11-14 21:30
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          GALE WARNING.
          DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
          AT 30N 127E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST
          SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 18 HOURS.


          IP属地:福建330楼2026-11-15 00:35
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            东南太平洋东南部近期出现了一个较强的系统。该系统于北京时间11月12日在东南太平洋迅速形成并爆发增强,在当天午夜前后达到巅峰,风场扫描显示其具有飓风级风力,是南半球少有的初夏的风力较强的温带气旋(可简单视为相当于北半球五月中旬出一个高级C1以上强度的温气)。随后持续向东南偏东方向移动,穿过南极半岛,目前正在进入南大西洋,进入生命史末期。




            IP属地:福建331楼2026-11-15 00:47
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              OSCAT-3扫描的时间最接近数值预报的巅峰时间,但结合形态来看感觉更像是巅峰稍过一小会,扫描到最大风速56.6kt。考虑到Eumetsat反演风速的模型算法对高风速较为保守,再对比今天扫描查帕卡温气的误差情况,估计此时至少有65kt的实际强度。


              IP属地:福建332楼2026-11-15 00:48
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                FY-3E的WindRAD新版本算法虽然质量一言难尽(尤其是C波段的高风速区间),但这个扫描风速表现也是能够基本稳C1水平的,何况还早于巅峰。







                IP属地:福建333楼2026-11-15 00:48
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:17
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                  SMAP时间在巅峰前,反演风速61.9kt,非常接近C1下限门槛,巅峰给到65kt起步没有问题。

                  AMSR的时间不好,要么显著早于巅峰还在刚开始爆发的阶段,要么就显著晚于巅峰已经明显减弱,参考价值不高。




                  IP属地:福建334楼2026-11-15 00:50
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                    北京时间11月14日凌晨到早晨该系统穿过了南极半岛,录得962.6hPa的整点最低海压。





                    IP属地:福建335楼2026-11-15 00:54
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                      ***Storm Bruna***
                      Storm #Bruna will dissipate this evening, but some rain bands associated with its remnants will cause a slight amount of further impact to southern France, with some areas potentially seeing 50mm of rain through tonight. It is advised that residents in southern France to follow further instruction from Météo-France.
                      ***
                      In the British Channel and over northern France: A low will form in this region on Tuesday, and bring some disruptive weather to western Europe. The level of development of this low strongly depends on the position and intensity of a much stronger low over central Northern Atlantic, which will affect the flow of the jet stream and how it may interact with the low. The low will most likely stay to the north of mainland Europe, with an elongated center and weaker winds around. In a less likely scenario suggested by GFS and GEM, the low is more compact and rapidly through the British Channel or northern France, leading to strong gusts of 55~65kt along the coast. The system has a 10% Chance of being named by the Southwestern Group in the next 0~2 days and a 20% chance in the next 0~5 days.


                      IP属地:英国来自Android客户端336楼2026-11-15 02:21
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                        GALE WARNING.
                        DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
                        AT 31N 128E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING ENE 20 KNOTS.
                        WARM FRONT FROM 31N 128E TO 30N 131E 29N 133E.
                        COLD FRONT FROM 31N 128E TO 28N 127E 25N 124E 24N 122E.
                        EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 24
                        HOURS.


                        IP属地:福建337楼2026-11-15 09:15
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                          ...STORM WARNING...
                          .12 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 50N177E 995 MB. FROM
                          44N TO 50N W OF 168W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5 M.
                          .18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N175W 992 MB. FROM 47N TO 51N BETWEEN
                          170W AND 180W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7 M.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N166W 986 MB. FROM 46N TO 53N BETWEEN
                          163W AND 172W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
                          44N TO ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 159W AND 178E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
                          SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
                          .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER NEAR 56N150W 976
                          MB. FROM 42N TO 60N BETWEEN 135W AND 169W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
                          3.5 TO 7 M.


                          IP属地:福建338楼2026-11-15 09:17
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                            GALE WARNING.
                            DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
                            AT 32N 132E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 20 KNOTS.
                            WARM FRONT FROM 32N 132E TO 32N 134E 33N 138E.
                            COLD FRONT FROM 32N 132E TO 27N 129E 24N 124E.
                            EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW WITHIN NEXT 24
                            HOURS.


                            IP属地:福建339楼2026-11-15 14:05
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:17
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                              GALE WARNING.
                              DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
                              AT 33N 135E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 20 KNOTS.
                              WARM FRONT FROM 33N 135E TO 34N 138E 35N 141E.
                              COLD FRONT FROM 33N 135E TO 30N 134E 27N 131E 25N 128E 23N 124E.
                              WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
                              200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                              EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST
                              SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 18 HOURS.


                              IP属地:福建340楼2026-11-15 18:18
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