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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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IP属地:福建250楼2026-11-04 05:56
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    IP属地:福建251楼2026-11-04 06:05
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      2026-11-16 07:06:15
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      GALE WARNING.
      DEVELOPED LOW 978 HPA
      AT 59N 178W BERING SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
      WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
      MILES ELSEWHERE.
      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
      SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


      IP属地:福建252楼2026-11-04 08:31
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        ...STORM WARNING...
        .LOW 56N149W 975 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM E
        AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE
        N OF 50N BETWEEN 140W AND 154W AND WITHIN 240 NM E AND NE OF A
        FRONT FROM 54N140W TO 48N140W TO 37N153W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
        2.5 TO 5 M.
        .06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N150W 968 MB. N OF A LINE FROM 58N151W TO
        59N148W TO 57N140W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M.
        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N154W 980 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW AND N
        OF 57N BETWEEN 137W AND 147W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M
        WITH SW SWELL.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
        DIMINISHED.
        ...GALE WARNING...
        .LOW 54N163W 978 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. EXCLUDING THE BERING SEA
        WITHIN 780 NM S AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5
        TO 10 M.
        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
        LINE FROM 53N148W TO 43N138W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M
        WITH W TO NW SWELL.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
        ...GALE WARNING...
        .LOW 59N177W 976 MB NEARLY STATIONARY WILL MOVE NW 10 KT AFTER 12
        HOURS. ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITHIN 480 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS
        WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N178W 978 MB. N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS W
        OF 170W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N177E 990 MB. N OF 50N W OF 180W WINDS 25
        TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS W OF
        162W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M...HIGHEST NEAR 56N167W.
        ...GALE WARNING...
        .24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 53N132W 994 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E
        SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 44N
        BETWEEN 126W AND 134W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
        DIMINISHED.


        IP属地:福建253楼2026-11-04 08:37
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          IP属地:福建254楼2026-11-04 08:56
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            GALE WARNING.
            DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
            AT 59N 177W BERING SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
            WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
            300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
            EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
            SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


            IP属地:福建255楼2026-11-04 11:04
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              ...STORM WARNING...
              .LOW 57N150W 973 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. FROM 57N TO 61N BETWEEN 153W
              AND 135W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO
              60N BETWEEN 125W AND 170W...EXCLUDING AREAS W OF THE ALEUTIANS
              WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 10.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 50N170W.
              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N154W 981 MB. FROM 50N TO 61N BETWEEN
              135W AND 156W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
              DIMINISHED.
              ...GALE WARNING...
              .LOW 59N178W 977 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S SEMICIRCLE
              WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N178E 981 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE
              WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N168W 986 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
              WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.


              IP属地:福建256楼2026-11-04 13:33
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                GALE WARNING.
                DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
                AT 59N 177W BERING SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
                WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
                300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
                SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 18 HOURS.
                ANOTHER LOW 1010 HPA AT 41N 172E
                MOVING EAST 30 KNOTS.


                IP属地:福建257楼2026-11-04 18:25
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:15
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                  ...STORM WARNING...
                  .LOW 58N149W 970 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. WITHIN 120 NM SE
                  QUADRANT...AND FROM 58N TO 61N BETWEEN 140W AND 155W WINDS 40 TO
                  50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 54N TO 61N BETWEEN 160W AND
                  125W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR 54N160W.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N153W 984 MB. FROM 56N TO 61N BETWEEN
                  165W AND 140W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
                  DIMINISHED.
                  ...GALE WARNING...
                  .LOW 50N135W 992 MB MOVING N 25 KT. FROM 35N TO 54N BETWEEN 128W
                  AND 165W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 10 M...HIGHEST NEAR
                  50N155W.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N135W 992 MB. FROM 54N TO 58N BETWEEN
                  141W AND 132W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE
                  FROM 40N TO 60N E OF 160W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5
                  M...EXCEPT WHERE DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOW 50N151W.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
                  DIMINISHED.
                  ...GALE WARNING...
                  .LOW 60N177W 976 MB MOVING NW 05 KT. N OF 53N W OF 172W WINDS 25
                  TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR LOW CENTER.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST 61N177E 984 MB. FROM 50N TO 60N W OF 160W WINDS
                  25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N176W 994 MB. N OF 50N W OF 170W WINDS 25
                  TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR 54N180W.


                  IP属地:福建258楼2026-11-04 18:30
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                    IP属地:天津来自Android客户端259楼2026-11-04 19:04
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                      【2026年11月4日北太温气简报】
                      ---
                      ...01N的主中心吞并东侧副中心再度整合为温带气旋......将登陆美国阿拉斯加...
                      01N的主中心也就是南中心已经在昨天向东北方向移动穿过了阿留申群岛,此后在今天(11月4日,北京时间,下同)与东中心合并,再度整合为温带气旋,目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压971百帕. 预计,它将向西北方向移动,即将登陆美国阿拉斯加,此后强度逐渐减弱.
                      ---
                      ...03N在国际日期变更线附近生成......将向东北方向移动并逐渐加强...
                      一个此前位于日本附近的温带扰动快速向东移动,在昨天加强为温带低压,并在昨天晚上加强为温带风暴03N,目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压994百帕. 预计,它将快速向东北方向移动,强度逐渐加强,最强可达E2,此后可能在阿拉斯加以南海域减速转向,11月8日前后登陆阿拉斯加南部.
                      ---
                      ...01N的西中心独立成为温带气旋04N...
                      昨天01N的多中心混战中,位于西侧的西中心采取了与东侧的两个中心相反的移动方向,在远离其它中心后独立成为温带气旋04N,目前其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压976百帕. 预计,它将先向西北方向移动,此后被01N拉扯转向东南方向移动,最终继续向东被03N吞并.
                      ---
                      ...烟花将向东北方向移动......新台风和飓风都将生成...
                      热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花已开始转向东北方向移动,它将向东北方向移动,强度变化不大,11月6日前后转化为温带气旋,强度先有所加强,最强可达E1或E2,此后转向东移动,强度逐渐减弱,远期可能靠近北美洲西海岸. 海上的一个冷涡正在逐渐转暖,它将成为热带扰动,并可能是今年第32号台风查帕卡的前身. 中东北太平洋热带扰动95E已经获得编号,它将在近期加强为新飓风.


                      IP属地:广东来自Android客户端261楼2026-11-04 20:55
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                        IP属地:福建262楼2026-11-05 00:39
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                          ...GALE WARNING...
                          .LOW 58N151W 974 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. N OF 56N BETWEEN 141W AND
                          157W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N167W 984 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 420 NM
                          S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
                          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N171W 992 MB. W AND NW OF A LINE FROM
                          64N164W TO 60N177W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.


                          IP属地:福建263楼2026-11-05 00:44
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                            ***
                            Between Madeira and Iberia: A developing low will undergo some fujiwara effect with another system around the Azores before eventually turning toward Portugal. Models are consistently forecasting intense rainfall over western Iberia, with widespread area seeing 100mm of rain and local accumulations exceeding 200mm, accompanied by thunderstorms which may drop up to 100mm of rain within a few hours. Meanwhile, mountanous regions may experience severe gusts of 60kt and probably up to 80kt at some isolated peaks. The system has a 30% chance of being named by the Southwestern Group in the next 0-2 days and a 70% chance in the next 0-5 days.


                            IP属地:英国来自Android客户端264楼2026-11-05 01:37
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:15
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                              ...STORM WARNING...
                              .LOW 51N133W 994 MB MOVING N 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 240 NM NE
                              QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
                              .06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N132W 990 MB. NE OF A FRONT FROM THE LOW
                              TO 51N129W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
                              DIMINISHED.
                              ...GALE WARNING...
                              .LOW 46N178W 1007 MB MOVING SE 45 KT. FROM 35N TO 46N BETWEEN
                              175W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N152W 1005 MB. FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN
                              140W AND 163W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N129W 999 MB. FROM 45N TO 51N E OF 142W
                              WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 M.
                              ...GALE WARNING...
                              .LOW 60N178W 978 MB MOVING W 10 KT WILL SLOW AND TURN SW AFTER 12
                              HOURS. N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS W OF 170W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
                              SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N177E 987 MB. FROM 50N TO 59N W OF 176W
                              WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N167W 993 MB. FROM 45N TO 54N BETWEEN
                              160W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                              ...GALE WARNING...
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 45N172W 994 MB. FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN
                              167W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N153W 1004 MB. FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN
                              142W AND 172W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M.
                              .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
                              .LOW 57N152W 980 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S AND 540 NM E
                              QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 54N147W
                              TO 44N141W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M WITH W TO SW SWELL.


                              IP属地:福建265楼2026-11-05 07:46
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