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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 50N 160E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NE 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 53N 163E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 53N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 986 HPA AT 51N 148E
MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.


IP属地:福建204楼2026-11-01 09:53
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    ...STORM WARNING...
    .12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. W
    OF A LINE FROM 53N180W TO 50N175W TO 45N174W TO 40N180W WINDS 25
    TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
    .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MAIN LOW 55N167E
    956 MB. W OF A LINE FROM 38N180W TO 44N168W TO 47N167W...AND W
    OF 178W FROM 56N TO 58N WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.5 M.
    ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 46N164W TO 50N164W TO 58N169W TO
    60N178W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
    .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 53N180W 960 MB AND
    SECOND NEW LOW 55N160W 972 MB. FRONT FROM 59N180W TO 58N170W TO
    50N153W TO 37N172W TO SECOND LOW TO 50N156W TO 44N160W TO
    38N172W. WITHIN 480 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT.
    SEAS 6.5 TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND
    E OF FRONT N OF 46N...AND 300 NM E AND SE OF FRONT S OF 46N
    WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M.
    ...GALE WARNING...
    .LOW 58N141W 994 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT FROM LOW TO 55N141W
    TO 50N139W. WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3
    TO 5.5 M.
    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED
    WITH LOW 55N135W DESCRIBED BELOW.
    ...GALE WARNING...
    .LOW 56N155W 985 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 720 NM
    SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M.
    .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N148W 995 MB. WITHIN 540 NM SW QUADRANT
    WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
    .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N147W 1012 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE
    QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.


    IP属地:福建205楼2026-11-01 09:55
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      2026-11-16 07:06:12
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      IP属地:福建206楼2026-11-01 10:07
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        【2026年10月31日北太温气简报】
        ---
        ...15N登陆美国阿拉斯加......即将减弱为温带风暴...
        15N已经在昨天(10月30日,北京时间,下同)晚上减弱为E1,同时转向东南方向移动,并在今晚登陆了阿拉斯加,目前其中心附近最大风力40节(20米/秒),中心最低气压984百帕. 预计,它将转向东北方向移动,即将减弱为温带风暴,以后在阿拉斯加以南海域回旋,强度继续减弱.
        ---
        ...烟花原地打转......后续将转向东北方向并继续减弱...
        热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花已经开始打转,预计它结束打转后将转向东北方向移动,强度继续减弱,几天后转化为温带气旋. 东北太平洋的VANCE已经减弱消散.


        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端207楼2026-11-01 10:16
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          IP属地:天津来自Android客户端208楼2026-11-01 11:12
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            STORM WARNING.
            DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
            AT 51N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NE 25 KNOTS.
            WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
            800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
            EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
            SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 18 HOURS.
            FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 53N 164E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
            MILES RADIUS.
            FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 53N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
            MILES RADIUS.
            ANOTHER LOW 982 HPA AT 51N 148E
            MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.


            IP属地:福建209楼2026-11-01 12:45
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              ...STORM WARNING...
              .06 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. W
              OF A LINE FROM 58N176E TO 49N173W TO 42N173W TO 38N180W WINDS 25
              TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
              .18 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MAIN LOW 54N167E
              956 MB. W OF A LINE FROM 38N180W TO 44N168W TO 47N167W...AND W
              OF 178W FROM 56N TO 58N WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.5 M.
              .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MAIN LOW 53N169E
              955 MB. W OF A LINE 62N177W TO 57N164W TO 47N157W TO 40N162W TO
              34N179W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M...HIGHEST SE OF LOW.
              ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 60N W OF 156W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
              4 M.
              .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 52N176W 965 MB AND
              SECOND NEW LOW 58N163W 969 MB. FRONT FROM SECOND LOW TO 55N150W
              TO 47N148W TO 40N160W. WITHIN 660 NM S QUADRANT OF MAIN LOW AND
              WITHIN 180 NM E TO SE OF FRONT WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 7.5 TO
              10.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO 65N W OF 144W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
              SEAS 3 TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST SE OF MAIN LOW.
              ...GALE WARNING...
              .LOW 61N142W 994 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT FROM LOW TO 56N137W
              TO 47N138W. WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3
              TO 5.5 M.
              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND WITH CONDITIONS DESCRIBED
              WITH LOW 56N137W DESCRIBED BELOW.
              ...GALE WARNING...
              .LOW 55N153W 988 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 780 NM
              SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M..HIGHEST S OF LOW.
              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N147W 997 MB. WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT
              WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 58N163W
              ABOVE.


              IP属地:福建210楼2026-11-01 15:14
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                STORM WARNING.
                DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
                AT 53N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NE 15 KNOTS.
                WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
                800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
                SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS.
                FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 53N 166E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                MILES RADIUS.
                FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 53N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                MILES RADIUS.
                ANOTHER LOW 980 HPA AT 49N 149E
                MOVING ESE 15 KNOTS.


                IP属地:福建211楼2026-11-01 21:11
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                  2026-11-16 07:00:12
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                  ...STORM WARNING...
                  .COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. W OF A LINE FROM
                  58N176E TO 50N172W TO 39N172W TO 38N180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
                  3 TO 6 M.
                  .12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MAIN LOW 54N167E
                  956 MB. W OF A LINE FROM 38N180W TO 44N168W TO 47N167W...AND W
                  OF 178W FROM 56N TO 58N WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.5 M.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA WITH MAIN LOW 53N169E
                  955 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9
                  M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM NE AND 1320 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25
                  TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST SE OF LOW.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 52N172W 969 MB AND
                  SECOND NEW LOW 58N166W 973 MB. WITHIN 600 NM S QUADRANT OF MAIN
                  LOW WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 7.5 TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 34N TO
                  64N W OF 140W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST SE OF
                  MAIN LOW.
                  ...GALE WARNING...
                  .LOW 58N139W 999 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT FROM LOW TO 56N137W
                  TO 54N136W. WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO
                  5.5 M.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
                  DIMINISHED..
                  ...GALE WARNING...
                  .LOW 55N151W 990 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FROM 35N TO 58N BETWEEN
                  151W AND 166W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M..HIGHEST S OF
                  LOW.
                  .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N148W 998 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT
                  WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
                  .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 58N166W
                  ABOVE.


                  IP属地:福建212楼2026-11-01 22:35
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                    ***
                    Over Greece and the Aegean Sea: A developing Genoa Low currently located to the west of Corsica will shift eastward, with its cold front causing severe thunderstorm activities around the region starting from tonight. Models are now more confident that the maximum 24h rainfall will be around 200mm at a local scale, with more widespread regions reciving 100~150mm in 24 hours and up to 300mm during the lifetime of the system. The system has a 40% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.
                    ***
                    Near the Azores: An extratropical system will form around 5 days from now in this region and deliver some convective activities to nearby islands. Models are still in disagreement about the maximum precipitation expected overland, with some suggesting rainfall of 50~100mm/24h and the ECMWF control run showing a 200mm+/24h scenario for Madeira. There may also be some strong gusts, reaching 50~60kt over high terrains. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Southwestern Group in the next 2-5 days.


                    IP属地:英国来自Android客户端213楼2026-11-02 00:13
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                      STORM WARNING.
                      DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
                      AT 54N 166E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NE 15 KNOTS.
                      WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                      AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
                      SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
                      FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 53N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                      MILES RADIUS.
                      FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 52N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                      MILES RADIUS.
                      ANOTHER LOW 980 HPA AT 48N 155E
                      MOVING ESE 20 KNOTS.
                      GALE WARNING.
                      DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
                      AT 34N 128E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
                      WARM FRONT FROM 34N 128E TO 35N 130E 34N 133E.
                      COLD FRONT FROM 34N 128E TO 32N 127E 30N 124E 29N 122E 28N 118E.
                      STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 118E TO 27N 116E 26N 114E 25N 111E.
                      EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
                      SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.


                      IP属地:福建214楼2026-11-02 01:12
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                        【2026年11月1日北太温气简报】
                        ---
                        ...15N将继续减弱...
                        15N已经在今天(11月1日)早上减弱为温带风暴,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压993百帕. 预计,它将在美国阿拉斯加以南海域滞留,强度继续减弱,即将被01N吞并.
                        ---
                        ...混乱低压区整合成为温带气旋01N......后续将在白令海多中心混战...
                        目前其中心附近最大风力55节(28米/秒),中心最低气压961百帕. 预计,它将向东北方向移动,先在明天加强为E4,此后分裂为至少两个中心并持续在白令海混战,期间强度逐渐减弱,后续可能分裂为两个系统,东中心登陆阿拉斯加,西中心则远离东中心独立发展.
                        ---
                        ...烟花将转向并逐渐减弱...
                        热带洋面上,今年第31号台风烟花即将结束回旋并转向西再转向东北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,并可能在几天后被日本以东新温带系统吞并. 烟花走后,西北太平洋可能有新台风生成. 中北太平洋有一个尚未被编号的扰动,它后续有可能加强为热带风暴.


                        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端215楼2026-11-02 01:20
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                          ...STORM WARNING...
                          .COMPLEX LOW W OF AREA 54N166E 963 MB MOVING E 20 KT AND RAPIDLY
                          INTENSIFYING. FROM 42N TO 48N W OF 173W AND FROM 54N TO 57N W OF
                          178E WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE
                          FROM 58N180W TO 50N170W TO 43N170W TO 37N180W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
                          SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 53N177E 954 MB AND
                          SECOND NEW LOW 54N161W 973 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35
                          TO 50 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 840 NM NE...1080 NM
                          E AND 1260 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M.
                          .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 52N165W 976 MB AND
                          SECOND LOW 55N155W 981 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW QUADRANT OF MAIN LOW
                          WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7.5 TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S
                          AND SW QUADRANTS OF MAIN LOW...AND 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE
                          QUADRANTS OF SECOND LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 8
                          M...HIGHEST SW QUADANT OF MAIN LOW.
                          ...GALE WARNING...
                          .LOW 56N149W 992 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 42N TO 53N BETWEEN
                          152W AND 160W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M..HIGHEST S OF
                          LOW.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N149W 998 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT
                          WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M.
                          .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONITIONS ABSORBED BY COMPLEX LOW
                          DESCRIBED ABOVE.
                          ...GALE WARNING...
                          .LOW 53N136W 998 MB MOVING N 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 360 NM
                          SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.
                          .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DESRIBED BELOW
                          WITH LOW 50N133W DESCRIBED BELOW.


                          IP属地:福建216楼2026-11-02 01:22
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                            IP属地:福建217楼2026-11-02 04:07
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                              2026-11-16 06:54:12
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                              WARNING AND SUMMARY 011800.
                              WARNING VALID 021800.
                              WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
                              STORM WARNING.
                              DEVELOPING LOW 956 HPA
                              AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING ENE 15 KNOTS.
                              WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                              AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
                              EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
                              SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
                              FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 53N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                              MILES RADIUS.
                              FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 52N 178W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                              MILES RADIUS.
                              ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 48N 160E
                              MOVING ESE 20 KNOTS.


                              IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端218楼2026-11-02 08:34
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