回复：【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月【台风吧】

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 50N 165E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 994 HPA AT 45N 178W
MOVING NE 25 KNOTS.

IP属地:福建

296楼2026-11-09 02:08

...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 47N179W 990 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...AND SECOND CENTER 44N175W 998 MB MOVING NE
35 KT. WITHIN 360 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...AND
FROM 33N TO 44N W OF 160W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 49N166W 972 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 47N157W 982 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
FIRST CENTER WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 720 NM
SE AND 900 NM SW QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...AND WITHIN 660 NM SE
AND 900 NM SW QUADRANTS OF SECOND CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
3 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SECOND CENTER DESCRIBED WITH LOW 53N138W BELOW.
COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 46N157W 976 MB AND NEW SECOND
CENTER NEAR 46N150W 970 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF FIRST
CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...S OF 52N W OF 138W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 9 M...HIGHEST CONDITIONS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 41N170W TO 40N150W.
...STORM WARNING...
.36 HOUR FORECAST NEW COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 48N145W
976 MB. WITHIN 540 NM E...780 NM SE...AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N138W 972 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF A FRONT
FROM 55N136W TO 54N132W TO 49N129W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...FROM 41N TO 58N
BETWEEN 124W AND 143W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.

IP属地:福建

297楼2026-11-09 02:12

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 988 HPA
AT 49N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 47N 173W
MOVING ENE 30 KNOTS.

IP属地:福建

298楼2026-11-09 10:45

IP属地:福建

299楼2026-11-09 10:46

...STORM WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N178E 996 MB. BETWEEN 180 NM
AND 540 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 39N167W TO 41N175W TO 43N180W AREA OF NW TO W WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH
LOW 48N162W BELOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 46N151W BELOW.
...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 47N174W 986 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
SECOND CENTER 44N170W 995 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 33N TO 50N W
OF 165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 48N162W 970 MB
AND SECOND CENTER 47N153W 980 MB. EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE
DESCRIBED...FROM 32N TO 51N W OF 140W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3
TO 7 M...HIGHEST SW OF FIRST CENTER.
.42 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 46N157W 976 MB
AND NEW SECOND CENTER NEAR 46N150W 970 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW
QUADRANT OF FIRST CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SECOND CENTER DESCRIBED WITH LOW 55N138W BELOW.
COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 46N151W 980 MB AND NEW SECOND
CENTER NEAR 47N145W 971 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF FIRST
CENTER WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT WHERE
OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...S OF 50N E OF 165W NW OF A LINE FROM
31N165W TO 34N140W TO 44N124W...AND S OF THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS W
OF 165W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8.5 M...HIGHEST CONDITIONS
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 43N145W TO 31N156W TO
41N170W.

IP属地:福建

300楼2026-11-09 10:50

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 49N 179E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER LOW 988 HPA AT 49N 169E
MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.

IP属地:福建

301楼2026-11-09 10:58

...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 48N167W 975 MB MOVING E 25 KT.
EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...WITHIN 150 NM N AND 840 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 48N155W 976 MB.
FROM 36N TO 43N BETWEEN 149W AND 171W AND WITHIN 180 NM SW AND
120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...FROM 34N TO 50N W OF 145W
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 M...HIGHEST SW OF LOW.
.30 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 47N154W 974 MB
AND NEW SECOND CENTER NEAR 46N148W 979 MB. WITHIN 780 NM SW
QUADRANT OF FIRST CENTER AND 540 NM SE QUADRANT OF SECOND CENTER
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 52N138W 970 MB
AND NEW SECOND CENTER NEAR 46N138W 988 MB. EXCEPT WHERE OTHERWISE
NOTED...FROM 30N TO 55N BETWEEN 124W AND 167W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR 37N155W.

IP属地:福建

302楼2026-11-09 19:01

【2026年11月9日北太温气简报】
---
...03N的残余环流将继续减弱......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
03N在昨天（11月8日，北京时间，下同）登陆美国阿拉斯加后在昨天下午短暂出海，此后在今天凌晨其残余环流再度登陆，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压991百帕. 预计，它将继续原地少动，即将被东侧的烟花吞并. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
---
...烟花快速加强为二级温带气旋...
烟花在昨天短暂减弱为温带风暴后再度开始加强，目前已经快速从温带风暴加强为E1再加强为E2，其中心附近最大风力60节（30米/秒），中心最低气压965百帕. 预计，它将转向北移动，将在今天晚上加强为E3，明天早晨起逐渐转向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，11月11日凌晨前后登陆阿拉斯加南部沿海，登陆后快速减弱，最后可能被混乱低压区07N吞并.
---
...07N分裂为两个中心......可能再度发展并短暂合并...
07N的西中心登陆俄罗斯堪察加半岛后继续向东移动出海，此后它东南侧的锋面逐渐整合并分裂出一个东中心，这个东中心在接下来的一段时间里继续加强，同时西中心逐渐退化，目前系统整体中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压977百帕. 预计，它的西中心将在晚些时候继续退化，明天早晨彻底与东中心合并；东中心则将向东移动，强度有所加强，明天下午前后东中心以东的锋面还可能再度分裂一个新中心，这个新中心有可能短暂独立成为新系统，最终重新被东中心吞并，同时07N的东中心也会吞并烟花的残余环流，以后靠近阿拉斯加南部沿海.
---
...08N已登陆加拿大西部沿海......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
08N已经快速东北行并在今天凌晨至早晨登陆加拿大西部沿海，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压1007百帕. 预计，它即将在加拿大陆地上减弱消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
---
...查帕卡将掉头向东移动......PENA将继续西行...
热带洋面上，今年第32号台风查帕卡即将在今天晚上到明天凌晨前后达到巅峰，同时掉头向东移动，以后强度逐渐减弱. 中北太平洋的PENA将继续西行，强度变化不大.

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端303楼2026-11-09 20:31

***Storm Bruna***
Storm #Bruna is now a weakening system but will continue to deliver high amount of precipitation to parts of Iberian peninsula. Widespread area will see 100~150mm rain in the next 48 hours, and the Sierra de Gredos will face double the amount, with a fair chance that the accumulation reach 300mm. Meanwhile, both Sierra de Gredos and Cantabrian Mountains will experience hurricane-force gusts, with maximum of the former forecasted by ICON to exceed 80kt. A red warning for rain is in place over Sierra de Gredos, and numerous other orange warnings active in western Spain and northern Portugal. It is strongly advised that residents in these regions to follow further instructions from AEMET, IPMA or other regional weather services.
***Storm Charles***
The remnants of Invest 94L has been moving on a more northerly track than expected by most previous model forecasts, and once the models has agreed that it will move across the subtropical jet, significant intensification started to appear, prompting the IPMA to name it storm #Charles. It will take another 48 hours to reach Iberian coast, dropping enormous amount of rain in Madeira during the course, as ICON suggested the probability of daily rainfall as high as 350mm, while other models generally claim 150~250mm. At its landfall, wind gust could widely reach 50~60kt along the coast, with isolated locations seeing 70kt or higher. Further ahead, Toscana will likely receive 200mm of rain in 24 hours, and 300mm rain will fall in the region around the Kvarner Bay region during Thursday Night. It is strongly advised that residents in all mentioned regions to be up-do-date about any newly published warnings regarding the impacts of the storm.

IP属地:英国

来自Android客户端304楼2026-11-09 23:59

...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 48N163W 972 MB MOVING E 25 KT.
WITHIN 720 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS...AND W OF 175W FROM 36N TO 46N
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST W OF 175W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 48N151W 976 MB.
WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5
M...HIGHEST SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N BETWEEN 135W
AND 173W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 56N140W 972 MB AND
SECOND LOW 53N136W 973 MB. FRONT FRONT FROM FIRST LOW TO SECOND
LOW TO 44N138W. WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF FIRST LOW AND 240 NM
E OF FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 8 M.

IP属地:福建

305楼2026-11-10 01:24

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 49N160W 973 MB MOVING E 25 KT AND TURNING NE AFTER 24
HOURS.
WITHIN 900 NM SE...840 NM S...AND 1020 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8.5 M...HIGHEST SW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN LOW 48N144W 974 MB.
WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS
4.5 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 51N TO 58N E OF 144W WINDS 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
..48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N148W 980 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.

IP属地:福建

306楼2026-11-10 08:38

...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITHIN FIRST LOW 48N156W 972 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND
SECOND LOW 49N146W MOVING N AT 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 180 NM
S QUADRANTS OF FIRST LOW WITHIN 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 8
M...HIGHEST NEAR 46N156W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM NE...660 NM
SE...420 NM S...600 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS OF SECOND LOW WINDS 25
TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW 47N149W 978 MB AND SECOND LOW 53N139W
973 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND E OF A LINE FROM 54N136W TO 49N128W
WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR 55N135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST LOW 49N139W 972 MB AND
SECOND LOW 56N143W 976 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NE...660 NM SE...1200 NM
SW...BETWEEN 180 NM AND 1260 NM W AND 420 NM AND 540 NM NW
QUADRANTS OF FIRST LOW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M...EXCEPT
2.5 TO 4 M IN THE NW QUADRANT N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 58N144W 978 MB. BETWEEN 90 NM AND
300 NM SE...180 NM AND 660 NM S AND 180 NM AND 420 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED
SWELL...HIGHEST SE QUADRANT.

IP属地:福建

307楼2026-11-10 12:52

【2026年11月10日北太温气简报】
---
...烟花加强为三级温带气旋......将靠近美国阿拉斯加并快速减弱...
烟花已经在昨天（11月9日，北京时间，下同）早上开始转向北移动，并在昨天下午前后加强为E3，目前其中心附近最大风力60节（30米/秒），中心最低气压956百帕. 预计，它将转向西北方向移动，靠近或登陆阿拉斯加，强度迅速减弱并被07N吞并.
---
...混乱低压区07N将重新整合...
07N最西侧的中心已经脱离系统独立，其残余环流目前位于俄罗斯堪察加半岛近海，而它原东中心在东行过程中在东侧再次分裂出一个中心，目前系统整体中心附近最大风力55节（28米/秒），中心最低气压972百帕. 预计，这个新中心将向东北方向移动，强度有所加强，可能在今晚达到E2，此后旧中心也将加强并主导系统，最终在11月12日前后与新中心合并，以后可能被南侧新系统吞并.
---
...查帕卡将转化为温带风暴......PENA继续向西移动...
热带洋面上，今年第32号台风查帕卡已经结束了巅峰，并转向东北方向快速移动，它将逐渐减弱，并可能在明天晚上前后转化为温带风暴，此后先短暂减弱为温带低压，11月12日下午起再度开始加强，最强可达E2，以后继续向东移动，靠近美国和加拿大西部沿海. 由于该系统将转化为温带风暴，后续将对其独立发布警报. 另外，中北太平洋热带风暴PENA将继续向西移动，强度变化不大，以后可能进入西北太平洋，但能不能成为第33号台风还有疑问.

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端308楼2026-11-10 20:19

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 51N140W 972 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND NE OF A
LINE FROM THE LOW TO 49N134W TO 44N132W AND WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M...HIGHEST NEAR 49N134W.
ELSEWHERE FROM 50N TO 55N E OF 142W AND WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 840
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N139W 973 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND E OF A
LINE FROM 57N140W TO 55N136W TO 53N137W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4
TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR 55N135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N144W 976 MB. NE AND E OF A LINE FROM
55N138W TO 59N145W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST
NEAR 59N140W. ELSEWHERE N OF 55N E OF 150W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 59N148W.

IP属地:福建

309楼2026-11-10 20:30

...STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 45N147W 975 MB MOVING NE 30 KT.
FROM 37N TO 49N BETWEEN 141W AND 162W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4.5
TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 51N W OF 140W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 7.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 40N168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 55N137W 970 MB. S OF 61N BETWEEN
124W AND 162W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 M...HIGHEST NEAR
51N134W AND 41N142W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. NE OF A LINE FROM 59N153W TO
47N131W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 53N139W 970 MB MOVING NW 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM E AND 180 NM S
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO
56N E OF 144W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR
49N134W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N147W 974 MB. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITH LOW 55N137W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

IP属地:福建

310楼2026-11-11 01:08

日	一	二	三	四	五	六

回复：【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

登录百度账号

扫二维码下载贴吧客户端