【2026年10月19日北太温气简报】
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...06N减弱为低压区......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
06N最终在加拿大西北方向近海转向东南方向缓慢移动，并在昨天（10月18日，北京时间，下同）晚上减弱为低压区，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压1014百帕. 预计，它即将在加拿大西部沿海登陆，之后迅速减弱消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
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...07N分裂为混乱低压区...
07N的东中心已经形成并正在逐渐主导系统，西中心则正在逐渐退化，目前系统的中心附近最大风力50节（25米/秒），中心最低气压996百帕. 预计，它的西中心即将在海上退化并被东中心合并，此后东中心登陆美国阿拉斯加，后续在陆地上缓慢向东移动，最终被南侧新系统吞并. 受其影响，阿拉斯加西南沿海将有大范围小到中雪，海上有小范围5-7级风.
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...小熊再度加强为温带风暴...
小熊的残余环流在昨天晚上开始逐渐加强，之后在今天再度加强为温带风暴，目前其中心附近最大风力55节（28米/秒），中心最低气压996百帕. 预计，它将转向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，将在明天再度减弱为温带低压，此后它的残余环流将在10月22日前后转向东北方向移动并登陆美国西南沿海，此后继续深入内陆，并可能在美国陆地上再度加强为温带风暴，远期还有进入北大西洋的可能性. 它未来24小时对陆地无明显影响.
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...蔷琵将靠近中国东南沿海......TRUDY将逐渐减弱...
热带洋面上，今年第30号台风蔷琵转向西北方向移动，同时强度有所加强，它未来将向中国东南沿海靠近，有可能在中国台湾、浙江、福建等省登陆. 东北太平洋热带风暴TRUDY将逐渐减弱.

***Storm Adam***
#DanaAdam has entered the Mediterranean Sea and hence the region of highest precipitation has now shifted eastward. Heaviest rain in Eastern Spain has passed, while Southern France and Western Italy will be facing similar impact next, with maximum daily rainfall totals of around 200mm and intermittent thunderstorms. Various orange and red-equivalent warnings will be active through tonight into tomorrow in this region, so it is strongly advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from national or regional weather services and be up-to-date about the information.
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On southern Ireland and British Channel coasts: A low will develop starting from tomorrow and bring strong wind to this region from Thursday night to Friday Morning. Despite that the center of the low will most likely pass through UK, its strongest wind in the southern semicircle could move through either Wales and southern England or northern France, where widespread gusts of 60kt and local maxima of 80kt are expected. The Met Office has already issued a yellow warning for wind, claiming the impact is at mid-to high level with low possibility, thus it may be upgraded into an amber warning when possibility rises. The system has a 50% chance of being named by the Western or the Southwestern Group in the next 0-2 days and an 80% chance in the next 0-5 days.
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Near the north coast of Scotland: Models are still disagreed about a low that may pass near Northern Scotland during next weekend. In worst case scenarios, suggested by GEM, gusts may exceed 80kts in Scottish Highlands, while in the runs of some other models the gust stay well below 65kt. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 2-5 days.

【2026年10月20日北太温气简报】
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...07N再度整合为温带风暴......即将被南侧系统吞并...
07N的东中心已经在昨天（10月19日，北京时间，下同）下午前后在美国阿拉斯加登陆，此后它的西中心在海上逐渐退化，东中心主导了系统，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压992百帕. 预计，它将原地少动，即将被南侧新系统吞并. 受其影响，阿拉斯加西南部有大范围小雪.
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...小熊再次减弱为温带低压......将登陆美国西南部并可能再度发展...
小熊已经在美国以西海域转向东南方向移动，并减弱为温带低压，目前其中心附近最大风力45节（23米/秒），中心最低气压1003百帕. 预计，它将向南移动，强度继续减弱，10月22日前后开始转向东北方向移动，在美国加利福尼亚附近登陆，之后深入美国内陆并再度发展，远期不排除进入北大西洋的可能性. 未来24小时它对陆地无明显影响.
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...蔷琵将靠近中国东南沿海...
热带洋面上，今年第30号台风蔷琵基本结束了眼壁置换，将开始再度加强，以后靠近中国东南沿海. 目前，传统模式和AI模式对它后期的路径有一定分歧，GFS、ECMWF等数值模式认为它会在三到四天后在中国台湾登陆，此后穿过台湾海峡在福建登陆，但它们的预报路径也在逐渐向AI靠拢，而AIGFS、WN3C、WN2C等模式都认为蔷琵会在台湾以东海域转向，但它们预报的后期移速相当之快，按照它们的预报在120小时后蔷琵就已登陆日本. 目前JTWC和CMA的预报均更接近AIGFS，它预报120小时后蔷琵在上海东南方向海域. 东北太平洋的TRUDY已经被NHC降格为后热带气旋，但在更低纬度，一个热带扰动94E已经被编号，它即将加强为东北太平洋下一个热带风暴VANCE.

***Storm Adam***
#DanaAdam has moved away from Spain but it continues to produce high amount of rainfall in the Ligurian Sea region. Some Areas of southern France and northern Italy will see another 200mm of precipitation through the next 24 hours. A red warning for rain and flood has been issued for Corsica and equivalent in 4 regions of Italy. It is strongly advised that residents in or near the affected region to follow instruction from national or local weather services and be up-to-date with any changes.
***Storm Austen***
#StormAusten has been named by the Met Office earlier today, and its circulation is already forming to the Northeast of Tropical Disturbance 93L. Models are now in agreement that the strongest wind will be in southwestern England, southern Ireland and southern Wales, where gusts can reach 60-70kt widely along the coast and local extremes of up to 80kt. Amber warning(s) for wind will likely be issued tomorrow as conditions become clearer.
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Near northern Scotland: Models are better agreed today that a low developing later this week will pass very close by or make landfall in Scotland, with peak intensity of Category 3~4. The maximum gust expected still varies, but possibility that a scenario which maximum gusts of 70~80kt occurin Outer Hebrides is higher than that of the better scenario, which gusts do not exceed 65kt. The system has a 30% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 2-5 days.

【2026年10月20日北大温气简报】
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...RACHEL在格陵兰岛近海回旋...
RACHEL这两天长时间顺着格陵兰岛的海岸线的方向缓慢移动，并在今天（10月20日，UTC，下同）半夜前后转向南移动，目前其中心附近最大风力35节（18米/秒），中心最低气压985百帕. 预计，它将转向西南再转向东北方向移动，强度先小幅减弱后小幅加强，以后靠近冰岛. 受其影响，未来24小时格陵兰岛沿海有小雪，海上有8-9级大风.
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...美国近海的一个温带低压被NHC编号为93L...
副热带洋面上，一个温带扰动此前被NHC编号为93L，之后它加强为温带低压，预计它将原地缓慢移动，将在明天加强为温带风暴，后续还有可能转化为副热带风暴并获得NHC命名.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 44N 144E HOKKAIDO MOVING NE 40 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 144E TO 42N 147E 40N 150E 39N 154E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 144E TO 43N 143E 41N 141E 39N 140E 37N 138E 35N
135E 33N 133E 31N 131E 29N 128E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 49N 151E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 65
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 52N 156E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 998 HPA AT 44N 139E
MOVING NE 15 KNOTS.

【2026年10月21日北太温气简报】
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...07N减弱后的残余环流将与其它系统合并......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
07N在昨天（10月20日，北京时间，下同）登陆美国阿拉斯加后结构快速退化，目前其中心附近最大风力25节（12米/秒），中心最低气压1000百帕. 预计，它即将与阿拉斯加陆地上的系统合并，此后逐渐减弱消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
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...温带低压小熊将转向东北方向移动...
小熊在减弱为温带低压后转向南移动，目前其中心附近最大风力30节（15米/秒），中心最低气压1005百帕. 预计，它即将转向东北方向移动，强度变化不大，明天中午前后在美国加利福尼亚沿海登陆，此后与陆地上系统合并并深入内陆，10月24日前后在美国与加拿大交界附近再度加强为温带风暴，远期可能经过哈得孙湾和加拿大拉布拉多半岛北部进入北大西洋，它进入北大西洋后的强度也有所调强. 受其影响，美国西南部沿海有小范围降雨.
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...温带风暴09N在俄罗斯鄂霍次克海沿岸陆地近海生成......即将登陆并减弱消散...
此前影响中国东北的一个温带低压在出海后缓慢加强，并在今天早上加强为温带风暴09N，目前其中心附近最大风力30节（15米/秒），中心最低气压1000百帕. 预计，它将向西北方向移动，即将登陆，之后快速减弱消散. 受其影响，它登陆点附近有小范围小雪和6-7级风.
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...蔷琵在半夜剧烈加强......可能在东海转向...
热带洋面上，今年第30号台风蔷琵在昨天下午开始整理好结构，半夜的暖心分析给出了中心891.7百帕的气压，中心附近也有浮标实测到909.4百帕的气压，这些数据都证实了蔷琵的实力. 预计，它将继续向西北方向移动，后续可能在东海转向东北方向移动，以后靠近日本. 随着副高断开，大部分数值模式都已经北调了蔷琵的路径，只有GFS和ECMWF为首的一些数值模式仍在坚持登陆台湾，但也在逐渐向AI靠拢. 另外，东北太平洋的热带扰动94E也正在逐渐整合，即将加强为热带风暴VANCE，它未来也大概率会达到比较高的强度.

***Storm Adam***
#DanaAdam is now located over Northern Italy and its upper level structure is starting to dissipate. Moderate to high amount of rainfall of 100~150mm and local mountain gusts between 60 and 70kt is still expected in western Balkans and parts of northwestern Italy, with asscociated orange and yellow warnings for wind and rain active. It is advise that residents in the affected region to follow instructions from national or regional weather services.
***Storm Austen***
#StormAusten has now obtained a full circle of circulation and is on its way across the Atlantic. Model tracks has shifted slightly more to the south, and as a result northern France will likely see the same level of wind gusts as souther England, with widespread coastal gusts of 60-70kt and local maxima above 75kt. The Met Office has issued an amber wind warning for Cornwall, while Met Éireann issued a full orange warning for southern Ireland, and AEMET issued an orange coastalevent warning for the entire northern Spanish coast. It is advised that residents of northwestern France, Benelux, Germany, Denmark and the 3 countries mentioned above to be up-to-date with any updates on forecasts and warnings.
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Over or near Scottish Highlands: An intense low of at least Category 3 strength will enter the region with a band of strong winds to its south. Models has been better agreed about the track, but still uncertain about the maximum expected gust speed, though the most likely scenario will be 65~70kt gusts widely on coastlines and up to 80kt over mountain peaks. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-2 days and a 40% chance in the next 0-5 days.

【2026年10月22日北太温气简报】
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...小熊的残余环流位于美国加利福尼亚近海......将在美国陆地上再度发展为温带风暴...
小熊的残余环流已经在昨天（10月21日，北京时间，下同）转向东北方向移动，靠近美国西南近海，目前其中心附近最大风力20节（10米/秒），中心最低气压1008百帕. 预计，它将快速向东北方向移动，即将在加利福尼亚沿海登陆，此后深入内陆，10月24日前后在美国北部再度加强为温带风暴，以后进入加拿大境内并继续加强，10月27日前后可能进入北大西洋. 受其影响，美国西南部有大范围小到中雨，沿海有大雨.
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...09N已经登陆俄罗斯并减弱消散......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
09N在短暂达到温带风暴强度后在昨天晚上迅速登陆，目前已经减弱消散. 这是有关该系统的最后警报，它的后续动向仍将被密切监视，但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴，否则不会再对其发布警报.
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...10N生成并快速爆发加强为二级温带气旋......将登陆俄罗斯堪察加半岛并进一步加强...
一个此前位于日本海的温带低压在穿过日本北海道岛的同时加强为温带风暴10N，之后在堪察加半岛近海剧烈加强到E2，目前其中心附近最大风力65节（33米/秒），中心最低气压963百帕. 预计，它将先继续向东北方向移动，即将在堪察加半岛沿海登陆，此后出海并加强为E3，明天晚上前后转向北移动，靠近或登陆楚科奇半岛. 受其影响，未来24小时堪察加半岛和楚科奇半岛及附近海域有大范围10-12级暴风，陆地上有大范围小到中雪，其中堪察加半岛东南部陆地有大范围大到暴雪.
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...蔷琵将近距离擦过中国东部沿海......东北太平洋热带风暴VANCE生成...
热带洋面上，今年第30号台风蔷琵已经有所减弱，它即将近距离擦过中国台湾、浙江等省，之后在东海西部转向东北方向移动，未来登陆日本. 而在超远洋，热带扰动97W和98W陆续被编号，其中97W的成台信号早在几天前就被报出，它大概率将成为第31号台风烟花. 东北太平洋的热带扰动已经加强为热带风暴VANCE，它未来将向西北或北移动，强度逐渐加强.

***Storm Austen***
#StormAusten has reached Category 1 strength and will move into the British Channel tonight, with its most intense impact lasting to tomorrow afternoon. Gusts of 60~70kt will be widely seen on either side of the British Channel, as well as on the coast of Bristol Channel, with maxima of up to 85kt on exposed headlands. Mid-to-high rainfall totals of 50mm may also be a concern , with an orange warning issued for rainfall in souther Ireland and a yellow warning in Scotland. It is strongly advised that all residents of the UK, Ireland and all coastal regions of continental Europe between Denmark and Galicia to follow further instructions from national or regional weather services.
***Storm Boelo***
The area marked near the Scottish coast yesterday has been named #StormBoelo by the Met Office earlier today and will impact Scotland, Northern England and Northern parts of Ireland from Saturday to Sunday. 55~65kt gusts will be possible at most loactions in these regions, with highest gusts of possibly 80kt over higher terrains and at coast. A Yellow warning for wind has been issued for these regions, and it is advised that all residents in these regions to be up-to-date about any changes to the warnings and forecasts.
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Over Greece and Aegean Sea: The Genoa Low activated by Austen may experience further organization after shifting eastward during the middle of next week, and lead to thunderstorm activities and daily rainfall of 200mm or higher in parts of Greece. Few models are showing the scenario though, and considering the passive performance of HNMS earlier in the season, the system will most likely not be named. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 2-5 days.