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回复:【讨论温寒带低压与短期数值预报】2026年10月~27年1月

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***Storm Felicia***
As all of the 4 Northeastern Group countries now has an orange wind warning, it is decided that Cyclone Felicia, named by the FUB, met the criteria of an unofficial windstorm, thus becoming Storm Felicia, the first windstorm of the 2026-27 season. It is currently an extratropical storm but is expected to reach Category 1 status by tomorrow. Storm-force to violent storm-force gusts will be possible across all coastal sections of the Baltic States, and localized gusts may reach hurricane-force. Additionally, counties of Dalarna and Gävleborg, Sweden will see 70-80mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours. It is advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from local agencies.
***
On the western coast of the Balkans: A new Genoa Low may impact the region with high precipitation this weekend, with the 00z GEM run showing Montenegro receiving 300mm of precipitation in one day. Some of the other models also uptrended their forecasts slightly. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Central Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.
***
Off the North coast of Scotland: A low may move across the Atlantic from the American Coast early next week, with hurricane-force winds south of its center. More recent model runs indicated that the low will be pulled northward by a deeper Iclandic low, hence the strongest winds will most likely miss the Scottish coast, and gusts should not exceed 65kt in most locations. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 2-5 days.


IP属地:英国来自Android客户端49楼2026-10-09 00:17
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    【2026年10月8日北大温气简报】
    ---
    ...01T已移出监测区......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
    01T已经在今天(10月8日,UTC,下同)半夜前后减弱为E1,此后移出了监测区,目前其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压980百帕. 预计,它将继续向东移动,强度逐渐减弱. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
    ---
    ...03T位于冰岛西南方向近海......将短暂再度加强为E1并登陆冰岛...
    03T在从加拿大拉布拉多半岛出海后快速向东北方向移动,目前已经来到了冰岛西南方向近海,其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压986百帕. 预计,它将先向东北方向移动,即将在明天凌晨前后登陆冰岛,之后转向东南方向移动出海,强度逐渐减弱. 受其影响,冰岛全境有小到中雪,沿海有8-10级暴风.
    ---
    ...温带风暴04T在瑞典南部陆地上生成......将在波罗的海加强为E1并影响沿岸各国...
    一个此前位于伊比利亚半岛附近的温带扰动在陆续穿过葡萄牙、西班牙、法国和比利时后进入北海,之后加强为温带低压并登陆丹麦和瑞典,此后在瑞典陆地上加强为温带风暴04T,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压997百帕. 预计,它将向东移动出海,在波罗的海加强为E1,之后登陆芬兰或爱沙尼亚,尔后进入俄罗斯. 受其影响,瑞典和芬兰南部都将有大范围中到大雪,爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛等有大范围小雨,波罗的海内有7-9级大风.
    ---
    ...热带风暴ISAIAS在墨西哥湾(特朗普:美国湾)生成并加强为一级飓风...
    墨西哥湾内,09L在昨天早晨前后加强为热带风暴ISAIAS,之后在今天凌晨加强为飓风,因此它成为了北大西洋二战以来最晚的首个飓风. 它将继续加强并转向北移动,以后登陆美国南部沿海并在美国内陆转向东移动,后期出海前后可能转化为温带低压.


    IP属地:广东来自Android客户端50楼2026-10-09 13:26
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      2026-11-16 06:49:15
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      ***Storm Felicia***
      Storm Felicia has reached Category 1 status as expected earlier today, and will continue to impact the Baltic Region. In addition to warnings yesterday, Poland issued a red warning for wind for its northern coast (though their threshold is lower). Gusts from 55kt to 65kt will wistand in Eastern Sweden, Poland and the Baltic States this afternoon and even though the warm front has moved away from Sweden, there are still risks of flooding from snowmelt in the following days. It is advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from local agencies.
      ***
      In northwestern Scotland: The future remanents of Hurricane Isaias and another low previously forecasted to approach Scotland and the Faroe Islands seperately has appeared to merge into a combined low in current moel runs. The system will more likely to stay offshore, but it may still deliver gusts of 70-75kt with its cold front to some locations in a region stretching from the Outer Hebridies to Shetland, depending on the exact track. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 2-5 days.
      ***
      In western Balkans: A Genoa Low will develop across the weekend into Monday and cause some intense precipitation in Western Balkans, though none of the models are now showing a scenario with over 150mm in a 24h period. Hence, it is increasingly unlikely that the system does not receive a name. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Central Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.


      IP属地:英国来自Android客户端51楼2026-10-10 01:48
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        【2026年10月9日北太温气简报】
        ---
        ...03N已被彩云吞并......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
        03N已经在昨天(10月8日,北京时间,下同)下午前后登陆俄罗斯堪察加半岛西岸,登陆后随即退化为低压槽,目前其已经被彩云吞并. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统再度发展为温带风暴,否则不会再对其发布警报.
        ---
        ...彩云短暂加强为四级温带气旋后登陆楚科奇半岛......将转向东移动并逐渐减弱...
        彩云在昨天晚上来到楚科奇半岛近海后小幅度超预期加强为E4,之后登陆楚科奇半岛. 登陆后它开始转向南移动,并在今天下午前后出海,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压964百帕. 预计,它将转向东移动,强度继续减弱,以后在白令海中部转向东北方向移动,靠近美国阿拉斯加西部. 受其影响,楚科奇半岛和阿拉斯加沿海都有大范围零散的小到中雨,堪察加半岛以东海域有8-10级暴风.
        ---
        ...诺洛将转向东北方向移动......小熊将快速加强...
        热带洋面上,今年第28号台风诺洛已经长途跋涉来到日本东南方向洋面,它即将转向东北方向移动,可能在2-3天内转化为温带风暴,之后短暂减弱为低压区,以后可能在阿拉斯加以南洋面再度加强. 第29号台风小熊将向西北方向移动,强度继续加强. 低纬度还有一个热带扰动95W被JTWC编号,它有可能成为热带低压28W或第30号台风蔷琵. 东北太平洋热带风暴RACHEL将转向东北方向移动并逐渐减弱,可能以热带风暴身份登陆美国与墨西哥交界附近. 飓风SIMON将向北移动,强度快速加强,可能高强度登陆墨西哥.


        IP属地:广东来自Android客户端52楼2026-10-10 13:51
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          ***Storm Felicia***
          Storm Felicia has left the Baltic Region and on its journey toward Siberia, which means that its impact in EUMETNET member states will end soon. Gale-force gusts around the souther Baltic Sea will last until midnight, and hence there are still some yellow warnings in parts of Sweden, Finland, all of the Baltic States and Poland. This is the last advisory on this system from OESMC. It is advised that residents in this region to follow further instructions from local agencies.
          ***
          Between Scotland and Iceland: A low associated with the extratropical remanents of Hurricane Isaias will undergo explosive cyclogenesis from next Tuesday, and will eventually reach its peak of Category 3 or even Category 4 strength near the south coast of Iceland. Albeit not making landfall directly, its cold front will cause widespread coastal gusts of 60-65kt in northwestern part of Scotland. Met Office has started to monitor the evolution of this system from yesterday. The system has a 20% chance of being named by the Western Group or be granted windstorm status with the name 'Ex-Isaias' in the next 2-5 days.


          IP属地:英国来自Android客户端53楼2026-10-10 23:35
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            下一个编号:NA05
            ...STORM WARNING...
            .COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 51N45W 999 MB MOVING NE 20 KT
            AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND SECOND CENTER NEAR 59N50W 983 MB
            MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF SECOND CENTER...AND
            WITHIN 60 NM N OF A LINE FROM 60N42W TO 59N44W TO 60N47W WINDS 30
            TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 52N E OF 62W WINDS 20
            TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.
            .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 58N37W 969
            MB AND SECOND CENTER NEAR 56N48W 986 MB. WITHIN 60 NM W OF A LINE
            FROM 59N41W TO 61N41W TO 63N39W...AND WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE
            OF SECOND CENTER WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE N OF
            48N BETWEEN 39W AND 59W...WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF FIRST
            CENTER...AND FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 39W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3
            TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 47N E OF 63W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
            4 M.
            .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 61N37W 952
            MB. WITHIN 60 NM W OF A LINE FROM 62N39W TO 63N39W TO 65N35W
            WINDS 50 TO 60 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM S AND
            180 NM W QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 180 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 66N54W
            TO 63N51W TO 55N38W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE
            AREA NE OF A LINE FROM 40N35W TO 42N42W TO 46N53W TO 59N62W TO
            67N62W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M.


            IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端54楼2026-10-10 23:42
            回复
              【2026年10月10日北太温气简报】
              ---
              ...彩云减弱为一级温带气旋......将继续减弱并靠近美国阿拉斯加...
              彩云已经转向东北方向移动,同时强度逐渐减弱,目前其中心附近最大风力40节(20米/秒),中心最低气压976百帕. 预计,它将继续向东北方向移动,强度继续减弱,以后靠近美国阿拉斯加西部沿海,并可能在圣劳伦斯岛登陆. 受其影响,未来24小时阿拉斯加西部、俄罗斯楚科奇半岛沿海都有零散的小雨(雪),海上有7-8级大风.
              ---
              ...诺洛将转化为温带低压并被小熊吞并......小熊将继续加强...
              热带洋面上,今年第28号台风诺洛已经在风切和冷水共同影响下减弱为热带风暴,它即将转化为温带低压,之后分裂出两个中心,西中心被小熊吞并,东中心向东快速移动. 第29号台风小熊将继续向西北转东北方向移动,强度还会有所加强,之后逐渐开始减弱. 热带扰动95W已经被JTWC给出MED的发展机会评级,它有可能加强为新台风. 东北太平洋热带风暴RACHEL即将登陆墨西哥. SIMON也正在快速爆发达到高强度,后续将登陆或擦过墨西哥西部沿海.


              IP属地:广东来自Android客户端55楼2026-10-11 06:15
              收起回复
                下一个编号:NA05
                ...STORM WARNING...
                .COMPLEX LOW WITH INTENSIFYING FIRST CENTER 57N38W 978 MB MOVING
                N 05 KT THEN TURNING E AFTER 18 HOURS AND SECOND CENTER 58N48W
                986 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT OF FIRST
                CENTER...WITHIN 360 NM SW AND 540 NM NW QUADRANTS OF SECOND
                CENTER...WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A FRONT FROM SECOND CENTER TO 58N43W
                TO 64N38W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR 57N52W.
                ALSO FROM 37N TO 47N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W...AND N OF 44N E OF 61W
                WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE N OF 32N E OF 64W
                WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
                .12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 58N38W 967 MB.
                BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT.
                SEAS 4 TO 7 M.
                .24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 58N37W 958 MB AND
                SECOND CENTER E OF AREA 63N29W 962 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S AND W
                QUADRANTS OF FIRST CENTER...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E GREENLAND COAST
                N OF 60N...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE W GREENLAND COAST N OF 60N
                WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M. ALSO NE OF A LINE FROM 30N40W
                TO 65N67W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M...HIGHEST W AND SW
                OF FIRST CENTER. ELSEWHERE N OF 30N E OF 60W...AND WITHIN THE
                GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.
                .30 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 59N35W 958 MB AND
                SECOND CENTER 64N36W 958 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF NW SEMICIRCLE OF
                SECOND CENTER WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 M.
                .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER NEAR 62N40W 966
                MB AND NEW SECOND CENTER NEAR 62N48W 970 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND
                W QUADRANTS OF SECOND CENTER...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E
                GREENLAND COAST N OF 62N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8.5
                M...HIGHEST W OF SECOND CENTER. ALSO N OF 52N E OF 64W WINDS 25
                TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5 M IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
                WHERE OTHERWISE DESCRIBED...N OF 37N E OF 55W WINDS TO 25 KT.
                SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.


                IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端56楼2026-10-11 13:02
                回复
                  2026-11-16 06:43:15
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                  【2026年10月11日北大温气简报】
                  ---
                  ...03T此前登陆冰岛......即将减弱为温带低压...
                  03T已经在10月9日(UTC,下同)凌晨前后登陆冰岛西南部,此后减弱为温带风暴并转向东南方向移动,强度继续减弱,今天(10月11日)它已经来到挪威西部近海,其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压999百帕. 预计,它将在挪威近海转向东北方向缓慢移动,即将减弱为温带低压. 由于其环流细小且强度较低,其对陆地无明显影响.
                  ---
                  ...04T已移出监测区......这是有关该系统的最后警报...
                  04T此前在波罗的海加强为E1,之后登陆芬兰西南部并快速向东北方向移动进入俄罗斯,尔后在昨天晚上移出监测区,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压984百帕. 预计,它将沿着俄罗斯北部沿海向东移动,强度先有所加强之后缓慢减弱. 这是有关该系统的最后警报,它的后续动向仍将被密切监视,但除非该系统减速或再次进入监测区,否则不会再对其发布警报.
                  ---
                  ...05T此前在加拿大拉布拉多半岛近海生成......即将迅速爆发成为三级温带气旋...
                  一个此前松散的温带系统从拉布拉多半岛出海后迅速加强为温带风暴05T,此后它进一步加强为E1,之后转向东南方向移动,目前其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压976百帕. 预计,它将转向北移动,即将快速加强为E3,之后在格陵兰岛东部近海转向南移动,以后被新系统吞并. 受其影响,格陵兰岛东部沿海将有大范围降雪,冰岛西南方向近海将有10-12级暴风.
                  ---
                  ...06T在爱尔兰西南方向海域生成......将被05T拉扯退化...
                  一个位于北大西洋中部的温带扰动在东北行过程中加强为温带风暴06T,目前其中心附近最大风力50节(25米/秒),中心最低气压992百帕. 预计,它将向东北方向移动,即将被05T拉扯并退化为低压槽,之后被吞并. 受其影响,爱尔兰西南沿海有小范围6-8级大风.
                  ---
                  ...07T在瑞典南部生成......即将减弱为温带低压...
                  03T靠近斯堪的纳维亚半岛时,其东南侧的冷锋受地形影响形成了一个新系统,之后它组织成为温带风暴07T,目前其中心附近最大风力25节(12米/秒),中心最低气压999百帕. 预计,它将向东南方向移动,即将减弱为温带低压. 受其影响,丹麦、德国、荷兰、瑞典等国将有大范围小雨和6-7级风.
                  ---
                  ...ISAIAS减弱为后热带气旋......后续将转化为温带扰动并加强为温带风暴...
                  北大西洋低纬度洋面上,飓风ISAIAS已在昨天凌晨前后在美国南部登陆,登陆后随即被NHC降格为后热带气旋,之后它在美国内陆向北转东北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱. 它后续将继续向东北方向移动,可能于明天前后在美国东北沿海出海,出海后短暂加强为温带风暴,之后被北侧新系统吞并. 由于该系统将转化为温带系统,它的后续动向将被密切监视,但除非该系统加强为温带风暴,否则不会对其发布警报.


                  IP属地:广东来自Android客户端57楼2026-10-11 22:27
                  回复
                    ***
                    Over Aegean Sea and its islands: An upper-level trough will prompt the development of a surface low near Greece on Tuesday, which will move into the Aegean Sea on Wednesday. Some models has suggested the possibility of 200mm precipitation on the island of Evoia, while other models like the GEM has the rainfall not exceeding 50mm over the same period. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 0-2 days and a 20% chance in the next 0-5 days.
                    ***
                    Near the south coast of Iceland: A low associated with the extratropical remanents of Hurricane Isaias will combine with another low and pass near or make landfall in Iceland, with peak intensity most likely reaching Category 4. Models has retained their forecasts that the cold front will cause coastal gusts of 60-65kt in Outer Hebrides on Wednesday, which should be below the threshold of naming. The system has a 10% chance of being named by the Western Group in the next 0-2 days and a 20% chance in the next 0-5 days.


                    IP属地:英国来自Android客户端58楼2026-10-11 23:12
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                      【2026年10月11日北太温气简报】
                      ---
                      ...彩云即将减弱为温带低压...
                      彩云在昨天(10月10日,北京时间,下同)穿过180度经线后继续向东北方向缓慢移动,同时强度继续减弱,目前其中心附近最大风力30节(15米/秒),中心最低气压982百帕. 预计,它将先继续向东北方向移动,之后在圣劳伦斯岛附近转向南移动,强度继续减弱. 受其影响,白令海沿岸有零散小雪和6-8级大风.
                      ---
                      ...RACHEL转化为温带风暴并登陆墨西哥与美国交界附近......可能穿过美国本土进入北大西洋再度发展...
                      东北太平洋热带风暴RACHEL在东北行过程中逐渐转化,在今天白天转化为温带风暴,之后登陆墨西哥沿海,目前其已经移入美国境内,其中心附近最大风力45节(23米/秒),中心最低气压991百帕. 预计,它将快速向东北方向移动,将在明天减弱为温带低压,之后以温带低压强度穿过美国本土,可能于4天后在美国东北部沿海或加拿大纽芬兰岛附近再度加强为温带风暴. 受其影响,美国西部部分州将有小到中雨,其中加利福尼亚南部有大到暴雨和7-8级大风.
                      ---
                      ...诺洛转化为副热带低压......小熊将逐渐减弱...
                      热带洋面上,今年第28号台风诺洛已经被JTWC判定转化为副热带低压,它即将被小熊吞并. 从近一个月前东太15E的起编直到现在,诺洛几乎穿过了整个太平洋,现在,这个传奇即将结束了. 第29号台风小熊已经结束了巅峰,它正在向北转东北方向移动,强度将继续减弱. 热带扰动95W已经被JTWC发布TCFA,很可能即将加强为热带低压28W. 热带扰动96W也被JTWC起编并光速给予LOW的发展机会评级,它目前被超级计算机数值模式强烈看好,很可能成为高强度新台风. 东北太平洋飓风SIMON即将登陆或擦过墨西哥西部沿海.


                      IP属地:广东来自Android客户端59楼2026-10-12 02:10
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                        SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 11.
                        24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 12.
                        48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 13.
                        ...STORM WARNING...
                        .COMPLEX INLAND LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 47N80W 1008 MB MOVING
                        NE 25 KT. FROM 35N TO 39N W OF 70W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5
                        TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 40N W OF 68W WINDS TO 25 KT.
                        SEAS TO 3 M.
                        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 42N62W 1001 MB. WITHIN 360 NM
                        SE AND 480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
                        ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 44N W OF 48W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
                        2.5 TO 4 M.
                        .36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N49W 992 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND SE
                        QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6.5 M.
                        .48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 48N35W 988 MB.
                        WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7.5
                        M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 49N E OF 51W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
                        SEAS 3.5 TO 6.5 M. ALSO FROM 33N TO 49N E OF 64W WINDS 20 TO
                        30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5 M.


                        IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端61楼2026-10-12 07:15
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                          ***
                          In the Aegean Sea and its islands: Increasing number of models are showing a scenario that a cut-off low dropping over 200mm of rainfall within a day on the island of Euboea. Red warnings for rain and thunderstorm will hence be likely to be issued some time later for the island, which may further lead to the system receiving a name. The system has a 40% chance of being named by the Eastern Mediterranean Group in the next 0-5 days.
                          ***
                          Near the south coast of Iceland: The extratropical remanents of Hurricane Isaias has re-developed after entering the open Atlantic and will rapidly intensify into a Category 4 Extratropical Cyclone near Iceland. As models are suggesting increasing peak intensity, the distance between Scotland and its peak location also increases. Recent responds from the Met Office vaguely indicated that the gusts of around 65kt in the Hebrides should be localised enough to not cause significant impact. The system has a 10% of being named by the Western Group or be granted windstorm status with the name 'Ex-Isaias' in the next 0-5 days.


                          IP属地:英国来自Android客户端62楼2026-10-12 23:15
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                            【2026年10月12日北太温气简报】
                            ---
                            ...彩云减弱为温带风暴...
                            彩云在今天(10月12日,北京时间,下同)上午减弱为温带风暴,之后在下午前后擦过了美国圣劳伦斯岛,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压991百帕. 预计,它将转向南移动,强度继续减弱,可能在近两天减弱为温带低压,之后被南侧新系统吞并. 受其影响,美国阿拉斯加有零星小雨(雪),白令海峡和俄罗斯楚科奇半岛有6-8级大风.
                            ---
                            西经100度以西附近的美国中部陆地(RACHEL的残余环流):
                            此前登陆墨西哥的温带风暴RACHEL已经在美国陆地上减弱,目前其中心附近最大风力35节(18米/秒),中心最低气压1002百帕. 预计,它将继续向东北方向移动,即将穿过西经100度经线,以后可能在美国东北方向近海再度加强为温带风暴. 由于该系统即将穿过西经100度经线,它的下一次预报将在北大温气简报中发布.
                            ---
                            ...诺洛已被小熊吞并......小熊转向东北方向移动...
                            热带副热带洋面上,今年第28号台风诺洛已经被小熊吞并,结束了它的传奇一生. 第29号台风小熊已经转向东北方向移动,强度将继续减弱. 热带扰动95W被升格为热带低压28W,它不太可能加强为新台风. 热带扰动96W被数值模式极端强烈看好,它很可能成为第30号台风蔷琵并达到超强台风强度. 东北太平洋飓风SIMON已经擦过墨西哥西部沿海并有所减弱.


                            IP属地:广东来自Android客户端63楼2026-10-12 23:57
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                              2026-11-16 06:37:15
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                              SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC OCT 13.
                              24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 14.
                              48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC OCT 15.
                              ...STORM WARNING...
                              .LOW 44N176W 1012 MB MOVING NE 30 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
                              FROM 38N TO 45N W OF 172W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
                              .18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N161W 988 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 120 NM
                              SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M.
                              .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N160W 978 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 120 NM
                              SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
                              300 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES...WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE
                              FROM 47N156W TO 43N159W...AND 360 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 44N166W TO
                              50N172W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO
                              52N BETWEEN 150W AND 174E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 4 M.
                              .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N158W 971 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W AND 120 NM
                              E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
                              37N TO 59N BETWEEN 134W AND 176W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO
                              5.5M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 61N BETWEEN 132W AND 180W WINDS TO 25
                              KT. SEAS TO 4 M.


                              IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端65楼2026-10-13 12:43
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