TXPS22 KNES 062356
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 27.7S
D. 154.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY
GOOD S AND W QUADS. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
FT CHG TO 0.5 IN 6 HR WHEN PREV 6 HR FT <2.0. SYSTEM LIKELY STRONGER
THAN FT INDICATES.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

18P ALFRED 250307 0000 27.6S 154.5E SHEM 45 986

Name: Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 27.6S
Longitude: 154.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (248 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/0600: 27.5S 154.4E: 020 (040): 055 (100): 977
+12: 07/1200: 27.4S 154.1E: 030 (060): 055 (100): 978
+18: 07/1800: 27.2S 153.7E: 040 (075): 050 (095): 981
+24: 08/0000: 27.1S 153.3E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 983
+36: 08/1200: 27.0S 151.9E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 998
+48: 09/0000: 27.7S 150.1E: 090 (170): 025 (045): 1000
+60: 09/1200: : : :
+72: 10/0000: : : :
+96: 11/0000: : : :
+120: 12/0000: : : :

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 03 月 07 日 10 时
“艾弗雷德”将逐渐减弱
时 间：7日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬27.6度、东经154.7度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：978百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏东方向约165公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”强度维持不变
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西偏北方向缓慢移动，强度将逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星监测图像（北京时间2025年03月07日08时00分）

图2 澳大利亚附近海域二级热带气旋“艾弗雷德”未来36小时路径概率预报图

TPPS12 PGTW 070305
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 07/0230Z
C. 27.88S
D. 154.22E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AGREES WITH DT. PT YIELDS A 3.0.
DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2234Z 27.57S 154.67E MMHS
06/2242Z 27.72S 154.43E MMHS
HUYNH

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 1:00 pm AEST [2:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.8 degrees South 154.4 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres east southeast of Brisbane and 110 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast.
Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, category 2, will continue to move slowly towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is most likely to cross over the Moreton Bay Islands Saturday morning before crossing the mainland coast, most likely between Noosa and Beenleigh later during Saturday.

你说他在26~27℃的情况围眼墙？？