18P ALFRED 250306 0000 27.3S 155.7E SHEM 50 986

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 am AEST [11:00 am AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.4 degrees South 155.5 degrees East, estimated to be 245 kilometres east of Brisbane and 225 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast.
Movement: west at 10 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been oscillating offshore of the southeast Queensland coast. Alfred's approach to the southeast Queensland coast has slowed.
Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

SAR日常高估

耐活

降水集中在南侧

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 03 月 06 日 10 时
“艾弗雷德”向偏西方向移动
时 间：6日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬27.4度、东经155.5度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏东方向约245公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由11级减弱到10级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月06日08时00分）

图2 澳大利亚附近海域二级热带气旋“艾弗雷德”未来48小时路径概率预报图

TPPS12 PGTW 060332
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 06/0300Z
C. 27.79S
D. 155.86E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. ST2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 1 DEG N OF CNVTN YIELDS
ST2.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW

TXPS22 KNES 060549
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 06/0530Z
C. 27.4S
D. 155.4E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE PT IS 2.0. THE MET IS ALSO 2.0 BASED
ON A 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO
FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

从2月22日20时算起，18P已存活了约11天18小时

TPPS12 PGTW 060640
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 06/0530Z
C. 26.88S
D. 155.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. ST2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC >1/2 DEG EQUATORWARD OF
CNVTN YIELDS ST2.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0336Z 27.32S 155.93E ATMS
DARLOW

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.3 degrees South, 155.3 degrees East , 225 kilometres east of Brisbane and 210 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is slowly moving towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast Friday night or early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.