TXNT22 KNES 251237
TCSNTL
A. 07L (GABRIELLE)
B. 25/1200Z
C. 36.5N
D. 37.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. EXTRATROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING ENE AND IS BEGINNING INTERACTION
WITH A FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...ZENG

AL, 07, 2025092512, , BEST, 0, 364N, 367W, 65, 981, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 160, 150, 60, 1006, 140, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, D,

NHC预报中登陆亚速尔的时候会重新增强到80kt，考虑到了斜压能转换和转温过程中潜在的sting jet的发展，是比较上心的
INIT 25/0900Z 36.5N 38.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 37.1N 33.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 38.7N 27.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
冷气团输送到温气核心的时候，液滴在干区迅速蒸发导致降温，气团密度上升，发生较强下沉作用，极大风区的气流得以动量下传，从而导致在低空出现一条强风速带，因为形状如同蝎子的尾巴，英文形象称之为“sting jet”。NHC提到Gabrielle在逐渐转温的时候有可能会发展出这样的现象。
Gabrielle可能会成为亚速尔群岛影响最大的TC之一，其他曾经靠近亚速尔群岛并且保持较好热带性质的有16Alex（一月登陆奇葩飓风），12和06Gordon,09Grace，92Charley，但是风速均不如现在Gabrielle的上望。

ACE快20了

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 36.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 37.7N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 39.3N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 40.4N 19.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0000Z 39.6N 11.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 37.9N 8.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1200Z 35.5N 7.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

槽化的比预期快，有可能还没到亚速尔就变性了
不过这是否和北侧牵手EX的超预期发展有关呢？

Gabrielle has quickly lost tropical characteristics today (25 September) in a highly sheared environment. Dry air infiltrating the circulation has left the low-level center partially exposed, and the overall cloud pattern has become more linear ahead of an approaching baroclinic system. Since Gabrielle no longer has organized deep convection and is beginning to interact with fronts, it is best designated as a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 70 mph (60 knots) based on earlier ASCAT data and the latest GFS and ECMWF wind fields. Weather radar data from Flores Island in the Azores indicate showers are spreading across the northwestern islands as conditions begin to deteriorate.
The cyclone continues moving quickly eastward (080/26 knots) within strong westerly mid-latitude flow. The center of Gabrielle will pass quickly near or over the Azores later tonight and early Friday. Gabrielle is forecast to gradually decelerate over the next few days while eventually turning southeastward as a ridge builds to the west over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the post-tropical cyclone should pass near or over the coast of Portugal later this weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this update.
The global models continue to show some increase in Gabrielle's peak winds tonight as the cyclone interacts with an approaching baroclinic system and completes extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast favors this solution and shows Gabrielle as a 65-knots post-tropical cyclone moving through the Azores early Friday. Thereafter, steady weakening is forecast as the low becomes vertically stacked and fills over the far eastern Atlantic. The global models are in good agreement on this solution.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.

07L GABRIELLE 250925 1800 36.7N 33.6W ATL 60 983

INIT 25/2100Z 37.1N 31.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 38.3N 27.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 39.7N 21.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 40.3N 16.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 40.0N 12.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 38.7N 10.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.9N 8.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 35.5N 7.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED