Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol 29U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 123.3 degrees East , 130 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and 200 kilometres north of Derby .
Movement: east at 21 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Errol, a Category 1 cyclone, should weaken below tropical cyclone strength today before crossing the west Kimberley coast just to the south of Kuri Bay this afternoon. During Saturday, the remnants of Errol are likely to be located over the inland central Kimberley.
Rainfall is already occurring near Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island and is expected to increase and extend east and south ahead of the centre crossing the coast.

29S ERROL 250418 0000 16.2S 123.3E SHEM 55 980

TXXS23 KNES 180102
TCSSIO
A. 29S (ERROL)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 15.9S
D. 121.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
LIES LESS THAN 75 NMI FROM THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING
TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY

寄

昨天10z的SAR和对应云图

刚从学校回来，问一下这位巅峰值多少？

ACE: 12.2825

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：翟丽萍 签发：董林 2025 年 04 月 18 日 10 时
“埃罗尔”趋近澳大利亚西北部海岸
时 间: 18日8时（北京时）
海 域: 澳大利亚附近海域
命 名: “埃罗尔”，ERROL
中心位置: 东经123.3度, 南纬15.6度
强度等级: 一级热带气旋
最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级
中心气压: 993百帕
参考位置: 澳大利亚西澳大利亚州德比偏北方向约190公里海面上
变化过程: 过去24小时，“埃罗尔”强度快速减弱
预报结论: “埃罗尔”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，将于今天下午到夜间登陆金伯利西部海岸（7~8级，15~18米/秒，相当于我国热带低压到热带风暴级），之后继续向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年4月18日8时00分）

TPXS10 PGTW 180259
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 15.69S
D. 124.30E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/W2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol 29U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 123.8 degrees East , 80 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and 190 kilometres north of Derby .
Movement: east at 20 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Errol, a Category 1 cyclone, should weaken below tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the west Kimberley coast just to the south of Kuri Bay this afternoon. During Saturday, the remnants of Errol are likely to be located over the inland central Kimberley.

ZOON的GFS数值判定0010Z、0340Z登陆Derby附近地区