TPXS10 PGTW 170258
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)
B. 17/0230Z
C. 15.04S
D. 119.22E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.5/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 115NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A CF OF 3.0. ADDED 2.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF
5.5. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2131Z 14.90S 118.92E GPMI
16/2148Z 14.85S 119.05E SSMS
16/2218Z 14.97S 118.98E SSMS
PETERSEN

应该没机会再加强了吧

东北流出竟然起来了（风切是不是给面子了）

恢复中

过去几个小时的强度可能是基本维持不变的

还不错啊这cdo

顶着正午对流减弱和风切加强的东侧对流是鉴。

意志很顽强，一生抗争到底

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol 29U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 119.1 degrees East , 465 kilometres northwest of Broome and 495 kilometres west northwest of Cockatoo Island .
Movement: east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .
Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol is Category 4 and has started to move to the east southeast over the last 3 hours. It will continue on the east southeast track towards the west Kimberley coast during today and Friday.
Errol has started weakening and is expected to quickly weaken further, decreasing in strength to Category 2 early Friday, then to Category 1 later Friday as it brushes the tip of the Dampier Peninsula. It is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength as it crosses the Kimberley coast overnight Friday most likely between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island, north of Derby.

能否竟争西澳四月风王？

目前120E短波槽剧烈下探，29S有可能迎来槽爆

10kt风切