AL, 10, 2025101006, , BEST, 0, 186N, 622W, 45, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 160, 0, 50, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、张增海 签发：张 玲 2025 年 10 月 10 日 18 时
“杰里”向西北方向移动
时 间: 10日14时（北京时，下同）
海 域: 北大西洋
命 名: “杰里”，JERRY
中心位置: 北纬18.6度，西经62.2度
强度等级: 热带风暴
最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级
中心气压: 1005百帕
参考位置: 距离北大西洋背风群岛东北方向约294公里
变化过程: 过去24小时，“杰里”强度由10级减弱至9级
预报结论: “杰里”将以每小时28公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月10日14时00分）

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

AL, 10, 2025101012, , BEST, 0, 198N, 634W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 160, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,

TXNT25 KNES 101236
TCSNTL
A. 10L (JERRY)
B. 10/1200Z
C. 19.6N
D. 62.7W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING
SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...ZENG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 20.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

fnv3开始支持后期南落发展c2-c4

10L JERRY 251010 1800 20.9N 63.5W ATL 45 1006

TXNT25 KNES 101811
TCSNTL
A. 10L (JERRY)
B. 10/1800Z
C. 20.6N
D. 63.2W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. LLCC
ELONGATED. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -86 C. MET AND PT=1.5. FT
BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON