感觉今年北大有点2007的味道，双C5坐镇但是比较两极分化，ACE不尽如人意

TXNT25 KNES 100024
TCSNTL
A. 10L (JERRY)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 18.2N
D. 61.3W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -89 C. MET AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO
IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

AL, 10, 2025101000, , BEST, 0, 176N, 611W, 50, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 50, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,

有点乱，看上去高空好像有多个涡度中心

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、张增海 签发：张 玲 2025 年 10 月 10 日 10 时
“杰里”向西偏北方向移动
时 间: 10日08时（北京时，下同）
海 域: 北大西洋
命 名: “杰里”，JERRY
中心位置: 北纬17.6度，西经61.1度
强度等级: 热带风暴
最大风力: 10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级
中心气压: 1001百帕
参考位置: 距离北大西洋背风群岛以东方向约170公里
变化过程: 过去24小时，“杰里”强度维持10级
预报结论: “杰里”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月10日08时00分）

TXNT25 KNES 100630
TCSNTL
A. 10L (JERRY)
B. 10/0600Z
C. 19.3N
D. 63.1W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/2.0
G. IR/EIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
LIES LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT
OF 1.5. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A NORMALLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH CENTER DEFINITION AND POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY