ECAI预报北印开季，看看实力如何

高富帅调强6月初南海台风TY登陆台山

18z依旧是gfs的独角戏，ec与ecai无反应

gfs又报出三旋。旋多能量分散，强度一般。如果能再精炼些，说不定能有一个强台或超台下限。不过其它数值反应不是很强烈，还要继续观望。

20/90
South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

萎靡的风季犹如萎靡的经济

挺不错的一个冷涡激发系统，可惜出现太早，晚两月出现是顶超，现在出现是丁真

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

GFS00z西太，双MH大饼，首台槽爆巅峰956北上转温气，南海台巅峰962登粤东

GFS00z东太，+61h成台，巅峰972