今年要是换成2005的南太，南印和澳洲不变，能否南半球历史第一

如果能过得了群岛那一关也许会是另一个errol，但是想要过去真的很难

31号了，让我想起了2013年的西太

如果过得了群岛那一关那就Gillian了（Yaaphone）

TPPS11 PGTW 181204
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (SW OF PAPUA)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 11.60S
D. 140.57E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MUSE

31P THIRTYONE 250418 1200 11.6S 140.4E SHEM 35 999

感觉现在看这玩意能不能去西澳就像当时看Faida能不能去莫峡一样

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 140.3 degrees East , 205 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and 385 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Low 30U is moving southeast in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria.
It will be slow moving on Saturday before taking a turn to the west away from the Queensland coast on Sunday, and then approach the Northern Territory coast early next week.
The chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases for a period on Sunday and Monday but gales are not expected to occur on the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

至少使得2025摆脱了卡湾空旋

TXPS26 KNES 181256
TCSWSP
A. 31P (NONAME)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 11.6S
D. 140.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...A LACK OF CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. THE
MET IS LESS THAN 1.0 BASED ON A RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO LESS THAN 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS
THAT LIMIT CHANGES IN THE T NUMBER TO 0.5 OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BERTALAN

CHIP：新世纪第二强风暴

收敛的让人陌生
（在隔壁CHIP已经完全高潮的情况下）

给到机动观测