29S TWENTYNINE 250412 1200 11.7S 126.4E SHEM 35 1000
29S TWENTYNINE 250412 0600 11.6S 126.6E SHEM 35 1000

TXXS23 KNES 121259
TCSSIO
A. 29S (NONAME)
B. 12/1130Z
C. 11.6S
D. 126.4E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
LIES WITHIN 30 NMI OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE
MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A SLOWLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEFINITION OF THE LLCC POSSIBLY GIVING A LOWER DT THAN
DETERMINED HERE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY

BOM大致预测路径

隔壁Olga已馋哭

TPXS10 PGTW 121515
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF DARWIN)
B. 12/1430Z
C. 11.88S
D. 126.25E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

ACE:0.49

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 126.1 degrees East , 305 kilometres north of Kalumburu and 465 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Low 29U is located to the north of Kalumburu and is moving to the west southwest. It is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday.
During Sunday 29U is expected to continue to move to the west southwest and remain well offshore of the Kimberley coast. However there does remain a small risk the low takes a more southerly track bringing it closer to the coast.
From Monday, 29U is expected to take a more westerly track and move away from the Kimberley coast. Increased rain, wind and wave impacts may develop along the north and northwest Kimberley coast during Sunday.

NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 29U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 12.0S
LONGITUDE: 126.0E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHWEST (220 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 5 KNOTS (8 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 13/0000: 12.4S 125.5E: 040 (080): 030 (055): 1003
+12: 13/0600: 12.7S 125.1E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 997
+18: 13/1200: 12.9S 124.5E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 997
+24: 13/1800: 13.1S 124.0E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 997
+36: 14/0600: 13.4S 123.0E: 085 (160): 045 (085): 994
+48: 14/1800: 13.5S 122.1E: 090 (170): 050 (095): 991
+60: 15/0600: 13.5S 121.1E: 110 (200): 060 (110): 984
+72: 15/1800: 13.5S 120.0E: 125 (235): 070 (130): 977
+96: 16/1800: 14.2S 117.8E: 185 (340): 085 (155): 963
+120: 17/1800: 15.1S 118.0E: 220 (405): 080 (150): 967

29S TWENTYNINE 250412 1800 12.0S 126.1E SHEM 35 1003

TPXS10 PGTW 121750
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF DARWIN)
B. 12/1730Z
C. 12.22S
D. 126.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED (NEAR - UNDER) COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO

TXXS23 KNES 121805
TCSSIO
A. 29S (NONAME)
B. 12/1730Z
C. 12.1S
D. 126.2E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.0/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
LIES LESS THAN 20 NMI FROM THE EDGE OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS
IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY WEAKENING TREND IN
APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 2.0. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE CENTER LOCATION AND
IN LLCC DEFINITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.1 degrees South 126.0 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 410 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay.
Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Low 29U is located to the north of Kalumburu and is moving southwest. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone on Monday.
During Sunday, 29U is expected to continue to move to the southwest and remain offshore of the Kimberley coast. However, there does remain a small risk the low takes a more southerly track bringing it closer to the coast.
From Monday, 29U is expected to take a more westerly track and move away from the Kimberley coast. Increased rain, wind and wave impacts are expected along the northwest Kimberley coast during today and on Monday.