Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 28.1 degrees South, 159.1 degrees East , 600 kilometres east of Brisbane and 570 kilometres east of Gold Coast .
Movement: southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving west towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is a category 2 cyclone and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday. Alfred is expected to cross the coast late Thursday or early Friday morning.

坚持深爆对流中，每一步都是在创造历史的征途上前进

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生 签发：钱奇峰 2025 年 03 月 04 日 18 时
“艾弗雷德”向偏西方向移动
时 间：4日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬28.1度、东经159.1度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：980百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班偏东方向约600公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”强度维持不变
预报结论：艾弗雷德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，逐渐趋向澳大利亚东部沿海，强度变化不大。受“艾弗雷德”影响，3月5-8日，澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部和新南威尔士州东北部将有中到大雨，局地有暴雨或大暴雨，累积降雨量有150~200毫米，局地超250毫米，并且将伴有8~9级、阵风10~11级大风。强降雨可能引发山洪灾害，当地有关部门需防范此次强风雨天气带来的不利影响。

图2卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年03月04日14时00分）

图3 “艾弗雷德”未来72小时路径概率预报图

TPPS12 PGTW 040855
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 04/0830Z
C. 28.08S
D. 158.53E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/0259Z 27.32S 159.35E ATMS
04/0545Z 27.42S 159.23E SSMS
PETERSEN

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 7:00 pm AEST [8:00 pm AEDT]:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 28.0 degrees South 158.6 degrees East, estimated to be 550 kilometres east of Brisbane and 520 kilometres east of Gold Coast.
Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving west towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is a category 2 cyclone and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday. Alfred is expected to cross the coast late Thursday or early Friday morning, most likely between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.

18P ALFRED 250304 1200 27.9S 158.6E SHEM 55 981

TPPS12 PGTW 041203
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 04/1130Z
C. 27.77S
D. 158.40E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.8 degrees South, 158.2 degrees East , 510 kilometres east of Brisbane and 480 kilometres east of Gold Coast .
Movement: west at 14 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving west towards the southeast Queensland coast.
Alfred is a category 2 cyclone and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday. Alfred is expected to cross the coast late Thursday or early Friday morning, most likely between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.

总之，18P会创造历史

Alfred 2025/03/04 1200Z
Wind: 55 kt [ TS ]
Pressure: 981 hPa
Position: 27.8S, 158.5E
ACE: 21.8050

近巅峰modis
AQUA 02.28 0405Z
B31：7.31
B27：-28.69