TPPS12 PGTW 021833
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 02/1730Z
C. 24.69S
D. 156.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED
IDENTIFIER: 22U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 24.9S
LONGITUDE: 156.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHEAST (138 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 7 KNOTS (13 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 03/0000: 25.3S 157.1E: 030 (060): 050 (095): 983
+12: 03/0600: 25.9S 157.6E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 987
+18: 03/1200: 26.5S 158.1E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 986
+24: 03/1800: 26.8S 158.5E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 981
+36: 04/0600: 27.4S 158.7E: 075 (140): 050 (095): 980
+48: 04/1800: 27.2S 157.4E: 090 (165): 050 (095): 981
+60: 05/0600: 27.0S 156.1E: 105 (190): 050 (095): 981
+72: 05/1800: 26.8S 155.0E: 110 (205): 050 (095): 983
+96: 06/1800: 26.7S 153.3E: 165 (305): 050 (095): 983
+120: 07/1800: 27.0S 151.0E: 210 (385): 025 (045): 1001

18P ALFRED 250302 1800 25.0S 156.6E SHEM 55 983
18P ALFRED 250302 1200 24.5S 156.2E SHEM 55 986
18P ALFRED 250302 0600 23.9S 155.8E SHEM 55 986

TXPS22 KNES 021806
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 02/1730Z
C. 24.9S
D. 156.4E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON A 24HR STEADY TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING

TPPS12 PGTW 022117
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 02/2030Z
C. 25.40S
D. 157.62E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 25NM IN SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET & PT YIELD 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

TXPS22 KNES 022358
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 25.8S
D. 157.1E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER <1/2 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF
3.0. MET=3.0 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

TPPS12 PGTW 030025
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 02/2350Z
C. 25.82S
D. 157.25E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
9NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1931Z 25.32S 156.67E SSMS
TIMMERMAN

18P ALFRED 250303 0000 25.8S 157.2E SHEM 55 985

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 10:00 am AEST [9:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 25.8 degrees South 157.3 degrees East, estimated to be 465 kilometres east northeast of Brisbane and 430 kilometres east northeast of Maroochydore.
Movement: southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue moving towards the southeast today, slightly away from the Queensland coast before slowing down and turning westward, towards the Queensland coast on Tuesday.
Alfred is currently a category 1 cyclone but is expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone tonight. It is likely to maintain a category 2 intensity as it approaches the southeast Queensland coast late on Thursday.

随着隔壁22S的撤编，现在迎来了两位苟王（18P和23S）的最终对决

话说为啥BoM看好18P西行后会加强是因为高反南移吗

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈 签发：张 玲 2025 年 03 月 03 日 10 时
“艾弗雷德”向东南方向移动
时 间：3日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“艾弗雷德”，ALFRED
中心位置：南纬25.8度、东经157.3度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州布里斯班东偏北方向约465公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“艾弗雷德”由11级减弱到9级
预报结论：“艾弗雷德” 将以每小时10-15公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2025年03月03日08时00分）

TPPS12 PGTW 030254
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 03/0230Z
C. 25.96S
D. 157.38E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 9NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN