昨晚

依旧稳定发挥

先前提到的雨带发展的的确挺快，正在将原先的不成熟眼墙快速"置换"掉，随后眼区会明显扩大一些。按照目前的趋势看一巅的眼径不会是针眼了，大概率是中小眼或中眼。这意味着一巅会相对稳定一些，相对来说更能保证这次巅峰的强度下限，不过爆发速度不会特别极端。中眼一巅也有可能会推迟未来可能的高纬二巅，压缩二巅的空间，因此大概率是一巅作为主巅峰了。

JTWC 21Z分析T4.5/4.5
TPPN11 PGTW 092107
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 13.60N
D. 147.34E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 25A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1744Z 13.02N 147.52E SSMS
RAE

JMA 00Z分析DT4 MET4 PT4 FT4 CI4
meteorologicalAttributeSignificance: missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated: 4
featureDirectionOfMotion: 309 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature: 6.17 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone: 3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone: 2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone: 3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 4
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 4
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 6
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 4
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 4
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 4
finalTNumberType: 1

JTWC 00Z分析维持T4.5，SSD分析升至T4.5
TPPN11 PGTW 092344
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 13.48N
D. 146.65E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 25A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1936Z 13.17N 147.58E SSMS
09/2057Z 13.50N 147.12E SSMS
RAE
TXPQ29 KNES 100009
TCSWNP
A. 15W (BOLAVEN)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 13.7N
D. 146.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT ARE
4.5 BASED ON A GRADUAL DEVELOPING TREND OVER 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE
LLCC AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN IR EYE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...CLARK

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 100000
CCAA 10000 99398 11165
BOLAVEN 15136 11466 11333 240// 93216
NNNN

左边这个坯还能发展成台风，形成双台风么？

adt分析为4.4

70kt，脱水！

15W BOLAVEN 231010 0000 13.7N 146.5E WPAC 70 990