NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS Celia

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 11.6N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

03E CELIA 220617 1800 11.7N 89.4W EPAC 35 1004

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 11.8N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 12.1N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 12.3N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 12.2N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 11.8N 92.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 11.5N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 11.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

TXPZ23 KNES 180014
TCSENP
A. 03E (CELIA)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 11.8N
D. 89.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC WITH TIGHTLY DEFINED CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES LOCATED <
1.25 DEG FROM THE SMALL COLD OVC RESULTS IN DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.5 DUE
TO STEADY 24 HOUR TREND. PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREGULAR
AND PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN

EP, 03, 2022061800, , BEST, 0, 119N, 891W, 30, 1005, TD,

hwrf一枝独秀

gfs：上望c3c4，可以啊
Tropical Depression CELIA
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 18, 2022:
Location: 11.9°N 89.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 ktGusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王海平 签发：董林 2022 年 06 月 18 日 10 时
“西莉亚”向西北方向移动
时 间：18日08时（北京时）
海 域：东北太平洋
命 名：“西莉亚”，CELIA
中心位置：北纬11.9度、西经89.1度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：1000百帕
参考位置：位于距离萨尔瓦多圣萨尔瓦多偏南方向约200公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“西莉亚”由7级加强到8级
预报结论：“西莉亚”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度变化不大。

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年06月18日08时00分）

The satellite presentation of Celia has degraded significantly this
evening, with all deep convection displaced far to the northwest of
the exposed low-level circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are at 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are trending downward and are currently
at 31 kt. The initial intensity has been decreased to 30 kt in
favor of the lower estimates.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 12.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 12.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 11.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 11.6N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 11.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 12.8N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH