不愧是hwrf

TXPZ23 KNES 221214
TCSENP
A. 03E (CELIA)
B. 22/1130Z
C. 13.7N
D. 103.1W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER NEAR A LARGE COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. PT
IS ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER
LOCATION AND LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING
=

EP, 03, 2022062212, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1034W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 50, 50, 0, 1009, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,

我感觉今天这个样子是不如我的预期的
按照以前预测的发展，今晚就得是一个中等的sts
现在来看，上MH大概是没有发展时间了

不过GFS与我的看法并不同，GFS认为今天以及昨天的发展是高于GFS自身的预期的，同样是预测今天下午16时的气压，今天14时的预测要比昨天14时的预测强，昨天14时的预测要比前天14时的预测强

基本上 sst就支持到星期五18z
不过hwrf似乎认为会冷水置换（bhh狂喜）

03E CELIA 220622 1800 13.6N 103.9W EPAC 45 1001

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

截至6月22日18Z:
03E Celia ACE= 1.21
西太 ACE = 17.6025 (6月 ACE = 0)
东太 ACE = 16.425 (6月 ACE = 9.63)
北大 ACE = 1.7775 (6月 ACE = 1.7775)
北印 ACE = 6.155 (6月 ACE = 0)
北半球 ACE = 41.96 (6月 ACE = 11.4075)
全球 2022年 ACE = 173.5125 (6月 ACE = 11.4075)

TXPZ23 KNES 230028
TCSENP
A. 03E (CELIA)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 13.8N
D. 104.2W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...0.45 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS
3.0 BASED ON A NORMAL DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/2018Z 13.4N 104.0W AMSR2
...HOSLEY

EP, 03, 2022062300, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1041W, 45, 1000, TS,