日出

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

建议某些人安静点

03E CELIA 220624 1800 17.0N 108.7W EPAC 55 993

睁眼说瞎话

TXPZ23 KNES 241824
TCSENP
A. 03E (CELIA)
B. 24/1730Z
C. 16.8N
D. 109.0W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...11/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 4.0. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE 24 HOUR TREND GIVES A MET OF 3.5. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
=

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 17.2N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

日结
上午1700z的卷绕给高强度提供了一些微弱的证据，但是随着下午到来，对流开始衰弱，原型毕露，风场的表现和下午云图的表现是吻合的。目前来看能量不够集中。
今天白天的发展相对于GFS昨日的高预测是相当不满意的，猛烈增强的重要依据之一就是白天对流不衰弱。
展望脱水表现的时间减少了，今晚出大云团，我是绝对不会认CDO的，风速肯定达不到，就不能依靠德法的嵌匿中心分析，但是大云团必须得爆，不爆今天1700z就是巅峰了，要上C1，今晚的大云团，明天白天整理+对流不衰弱，晚上冷水区出LG+OW，难度很大，高度不看好。

做个人吧，几个小时前刚拿出两张值55kt的vis图，现在就一言难尽了

截至6月24日18Z:
03E Celia ACE= 3.0775
西太 ACE = 17.6025 (6月 ACE = 0)
东太 ACE = 18.2925 (6月 ACE = 11.4975)
北大 ACE = 1.7775 (6月 ACE = 1.7775)
北印 ACE = 6.155 (6月 ACE = 0)
北半球 ACE = 43.8275 (6月 ACE = 13.275)
全球 2022年 ACE = 175.38 (6月 ACE = 13.275)
东太ACE超过西太

TXPZ23 KNES 250002
TCSENP
A. 03E (CELIA)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 17.4N
D. 109.2W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.5/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. MET=4.0 AND
PT=3.5. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY LAST 6 HR. FT IS
BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND IRREG/WANING
CENTRAL CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/2008Z 17.2N 108.7W AMSR2
...KONON
=

EP, 03, 2022062500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1093W, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
EP, 03, 2022062500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1093W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,