2

SH, 94, 2019012100, , BEST, 0, 100S, 1289E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 94, 2019012106, , BEST, 0, 101S, 1284E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 94, 2019012112, , BEST, 0, 103S, 1280E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 94, 2019012118, , BEST, 0, 107S, 1275E, 15, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 165, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

GFS上望938

EC GFS均支持高强度，但这个位置如果走得离陆地不够远很容易翻车

SH, 94, 2019012200, , BEST, 0, 111S, 1270E, 15, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

A weak tropical low has developed in the trough well north of the Northern Territory. It is forecast to move generally southwest over the next week, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing later in the week. The system could move close to the Kimberley mid week and then possibly near the Pilbara later in the week.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate

A tropical low has developed in the monsoon trough north of the Kimberley, near 11.3S 125.9E at 1300 WST Tuesday. It is forecast to move southwest over the next week, with a significant risk of becoming a tropical cyclone later in the week, most likely from late Thursday. Whilst a coastal crossing for the Kimberley is highly unlikely, the system could move close to the northwestern Kimberley coast on Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for coastal gales and squalls. The heaviest rainfall is expected to remain offshore close to the system centre, however heavy falls through the Kimberley may be possible in the spiral banding features of a cyclone if they develop and move over land.
In the longer term, there is a small risk that the system could move over the west Pilbara coast late in the weekend. It is more likely to remain further offshore and move west-southwest, roughly parallel to the coast. Significantly increased swell and increased rainfall for the Pilbara coast would still be likely in this scenario. Due to the timing of this system coinciding with tides close to highest astronomical tides, storm surge impacts from this system could be significant.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:High
Friday:High

LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South, 125.9 degrees East , 345 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 490 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday. Conditions are favourable for intensification as it continues to move southwest over water later in the week, parallel to the coast. If the system tracks closer to the coast, gales may develop along the northwest Kimberley coast.