WTXS22 PGTW 230730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222230Z JAN 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 124.0E TO 16.9S 118.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
123.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 126.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 123.7E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230508Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240730Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 222230) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E.//
NNNN

WTXS22 PGTW 230730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222230Z JAN 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 222230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 124.0E TO 16.9S 118.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 123.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 40.5E
//
NNNN

TPXS13 PGTW 230930
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (NW OF DARWIN)
B. 23/0900Z
C. 15.10S
D. 123.58E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
VEERKAMP

SH, 94, 2019012312, , BEST, 0, 157S, 1228E, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 130, 35, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

GALE WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal six south (15.6S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal five east (122.5E)
Recent movement : southwest at 13 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12-18 hours.

TXXS21 KNES 231226
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)
B. 23/1130Z
C. 15.6S
D. 122.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 0.5 CURVED BANDING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 0.5 OVER 6HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
23/0945Z 15.4S 122.9E WINDSAT
23/1046Z 15.7S 122.8E SSMIS
...RAMIREZ