上望澳式3级

SH, 94, 2019012212, , BEST, 0, 114S, 1266E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221327Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO
THE WEST. A 221327Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 10-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STATUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

嗯

TPXS13 PGTW 230023
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (NW OF DARWIN)
B. 22/0000Z
C. 13.40S
D. 124.59E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

囍，看来前途不错

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South, 124.2 degrees East , 190 kilometres north of Kuri Bay and 270 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu .
Movement: southwest at 17 kilometres per hour .
The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday. Conditions are favourable for intensification as it continues to move southwest over water later in the week, parallel to the coast. If the system moves slower than forecast and take a more southerly track, closer to the coast, gales may develop along the northwest Kimberley coast.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are not expected during Wednesday but may develop during Thursday morning between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay, not including Derby, if the system moves closer to the coast.
Squally thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, particularly about the northwest Kimberley coast
Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island but not including Derby need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
People between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay should listen for the next advice.
People needing DFES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337).
Details:
Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am January 23tropical low13.8S124.2E85
+6hr2 pm January 23tropical low14.3S123.6E80
+12hr8 pm January 23tropical low14.6S123.1E100
+18hr2 am January 24tropical low15.2S121.9E125
+24hr8 am January 24115.5S121.1E145
+36hr8 pm January 24115.5S120.0E185
+48hr8 am January 25215.9S119.4E220
+60hr8 pm January 25216.8S118.4E255
+72hr8 am January 26317.2S117.0E290
上望澳式C3

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