(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

TPPN10 PGTW 101456
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99C (E OF KWAJALEIN)
B. 09/1430Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

99C INVEST 181210 1200 4.3N 177.8E CPAC 20 1005

TPPN10 PGTW 102128
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99C (E OF KWAJALEIN)
B. 10/2100Z
C. 5.35N
D. 176.31E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

99C INVEST 181211 0000 5.4N 175.8E CPAC 20 1007

这个有机会成台么？

目前正在经历换心 新的心GFS认为0300Z就会闭合 等一张ASCAT的扫描

请继续以扰动级横跨西太

目前：辐合20，辐散30（略偏离中心），涡度鲜红，风切10kt左右，有弱高反，流出转好。

99C很坚强，估计前景不错，另外注意菲律宾以东低纬有云团活动

补发
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 175.8E, APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 102204Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND A 102203Z 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MASS OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT, DESPITE SLIGHT MIDLEVEL TURNING, IS
STILL STRUGGLING TO ESTABLISH A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDER LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS HOWEVER THE JTWC
BEST TRACK POSITION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS.
SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. GFS AND NAVGEM FORECAST AGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM, WHILE THE ECMWF, UKMO, AND JGSM MODELS SHOW 99C
REMAINING A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.