CP, 99, 2018120918, , BEST, 0, 35N, 1798W, 20, 1004, LO

TPPZ01 PGTW 092125
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99C (E OF MAJURO)
B. 09/2100Z
C. 3.04N
D. 179.58W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MILAM

昨晚10小时对比

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 04N 177E WEST SLOWLY.

99C INVEST 181210 0000 4.0N 180.0W CPAC 15 1007

JMA：LPA

GFS新报983

稳步发展，加油99C

进入西太

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
3.4N 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092119Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING, SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OR MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

流场比昨天好了点

辐合10，较乱

副散20？，较乱

风切略危险

涡度黄略橙，狭长且分裂

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.

30kt