远洋ITCZ很热闹呢

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Wed Jun 20 2018
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. An area of thunderstorms is located about 1250 miles southwest of
the main Hawaiian Islands. The disturbance may persist for
a couple of days, but conditions in the upper atmosphere are not
very favorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Forecaster KINO/FOSTER

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Additional development is possible
thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Stewart

GFS新报（6月21日00z）报出东太系统

GEM、ICON新报（6月21日00z）

远洋

逃不掉的干扰
居然有扰动以为自己可以有辐合

MJO干位相本周从印度洋扩展至海洋性大陆。由于对流区向北偏离了赤道不少，反映到RMM指数上就是MJO振幅微弱。动力学模式显示印度洋上的干区会在未来几天被湿区取代，即MJO湿区将会位于1、2位相。在那之后，MJO应该会继续东传，但模式之间对于MJO之后的强度变化分歧较大。
与对流耦合的大气开尔文波的活跃位相目前位于日界线附近，并会在未来一周持续东传。开尔文波的对流信号在到达美洲后将迅速消失，但模式也指出开尔文波将在第二周在印度洋和对流再次建立耦合关系。开尔文波是东太平洋热带气旋形成的潜在触发机制。
未来一周，全球热带气旋活动平静。下周之后东太平洋（可能性中等）和吕宋以东（可能性小）可能有热带气旋活动。

GFS新报（6月21日12z）报出一东海北上台接连登陆山东半岛和辽东半岛，最终在秦皇岛附近消散

南海和菲东云团

珠海今天红色暴雨是什么情况

握草