目前MJO出现了不连续东传的现象，这主要是因为在热带出现了两个对流区：一个在东南亚到西太平洋一带，另一个在东太平洋。后者与MJO的低频信号的东传相一致。未来两周MJO将抵达非洲，随后进入印度洋。
未来一周，北美西南部和中美洲地区对流活跃，而中印度洋到东印度洋一带则是对流抑制区。南海、东海有热带气旋活跃，但将迅速变性为温带气旋。另外菲律宾以东有较小可能性有热带气旋形成。
第二周，对应MJO对流位相到达非洲地区，西太平洋和南海的热带气旋不活跃。动力学模式对于MJO在印度洋的东传速度和进入海洋性大陆的时间分歧较大。
据CFS，西太平洋下一次热带气旋活跃期要等到7月中旬。

JMA报出48h后南海北部另一TD

gfs报两天后有TD登陆粤东闽南交界

南海北部蠢蠢欲动

又到派比安

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the southern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development. However, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across the Yucatan Peninsula and the central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. This activity is likely to reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. For more details on this system please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

副高内部出现了一团孤零零的对流，不知道会不会编号

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a surface trough over the southern Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface observations and high-resolution wind data indicate that a surface circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the northeast of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Blake