贴吧26号今天好像抽风了 有些帖子明明在却看不到 先是被删

2017012612,-17.1,121.9,25,998,TD 维持

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY
540 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261032Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS
SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OVER LAND TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 31 DEGREES CELSIUS,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODALS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

TPXS11 PGTW 261444
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 17.00S
D. 121.55E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 1.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0952Z 17.17S 122.72E WIND
26/1032Z 17.80S 122.68E SSMS
HART

既然TCFA了，为什么没有低压贴？

Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1329 UTC 26/01/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 122.6E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
升格14U

风场

如数值所料，这系统在陆地上吸收了三天季风却缺少有效整合，环流早已变得很大，因此未来将发展为一比较典型的季风低压，这一点在明天即可显现出来。事实上从现在的云图和风场看季风低压的特征已经初露端倪。
对于这种系统，实际发展是很容易低于数值预期的，尤其是GFS的预期。所以，即使预测现在能命名，到最后也未必。一切就看它明天给我们呈现一个怎样的形态，如果比预想的还要大还要散，一月就可以全球空台了。
另外，如果这系统生成了，请勿过度发表“破坏了一月空台”之类的无意义言论，尤其是以过激的态度，应该适可而止。否则吧务有权进行管理。

2017012618,-17.4,120.7,25,999,TD
中心入海

TXXS25 KNES 270021
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B. 26/2330Z
C. 17.8S
D. 120.7E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SPIRAL LOOSELY
DEFINED CLOUD LINES. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER
MEASURES 3/10, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 WHILE PT IS
ADJUSTED UP TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT
CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

at: 0127 UTC 27/01/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 119.7E
Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
虽然06Z风力就达标了，但还不满足BoM的命名标准

SH90: INVEST (30kts