A monsoon trough is developing over the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley. A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is developing over the western Gulf of Carpentaria near Groote Eylandt. The low is likely to move in a west to southwesterly direction across the Top End and northern Kimberley during Tuesday and Wednesday. During Thursday (Low Cyclone Rating) the system is likely to be moving over the northern Kimberley, with some models having the system reaching the west Kimberley late in the day. However it is likely that the tropical low would not have remained long enough over water to develop. There is a High risk of a tropical cyclone this weekend, with most model guidance developing the low while moving off the west Kimberley coast.