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【讨论扰动】90P-17.01.23编

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SH90: INVEST (15kts)


1楼2017-01-23 14:43回复
    怎么编


    来自Android客户端2楼2017-01-23 14:44
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      2025-12-26 14:17:20
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      SH, 90, 2017012306, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1367E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0


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      IP属地:四川来自手机贴吧3楼2017-01-23 14:46
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        卡湾西部的季风槽系统,马上登陆澳洲北部,之后西行。在除夕前后有较大可能从西澳出海,之后有可能发展为TC,GFS支持大年初一成旋。
        但需注意这个系统在陆地上得不到有效整合,并且会吸收大量季风,出海时预计环流较大,也就没有达到高强度的潜力,甚至有发展为大环流季风低压的可能。比如最新报EC,只支持一个烈风以下的系统。





        7楼2017-01-23 14:56
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          SH, 90, 2017012212, , BEST, 0, 142S, 1376E, 15, 1010, DB,
          SH, 90, 2017012218, , BEST, 0, 142S, 1373E, 15, 1010, DB,
          SH, 90, 2017012300, , BEST, 0, 142S, 1370E, 15, 1010, DB,
          SH, 90, 2017012306, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1367E, 15, 1010, DB,


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          IP属地:四川来自手机贴吧8楼2017-01-23 15:02
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            90P INVEST
            As of 06:00 UTC Jan 23, 2017:
            Location: 14.3°S 136.7°E
            Maximum Winds: 15 kt
            Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

            此货即将登陆


            9楼2017-01-23 15:02
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              A monsoon trough is developing over the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley. A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is developing over the western Gulf of Carpentaria near Groote Eylandt.
              The low is likely to move in a west to southwesterly direction across the Top End and northern Kimberley during Tuesday and Wednesday. During Thursday (Low Cyclone Rating) the system is likely to be moving over the northern Kimberley, with some models having the system reaching the west Kimberley late in the day. However it is likely that the tropical low would not have remained long enough over water to develop.
              There is a High risk of a tropical cyclone this weekend, with most model guidance developing the low while moving off the west Kimberley coast.


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              IP属地:四川来自手机贴吧10楼2017-01-23 15:13
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                那么是否该考虑命名


                11楼2017-01-23 15:53
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                  2025-12-26 14:11:20
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                  诶,南半球今年是要创造ACE倒数第一的纪录吗?


                  来自手机贴吧12楼2017-01-23 18:21
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                    90P INVEST 170123 1200 14.3S 136.5E SHEM 15 1010


                    IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端13楼2017-01-23 20:00
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                      IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端14楼2017-01-23 23:24
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                        额,貌似。。。登录了?


                        IP属地:广西来自Android客户端15楼2017-01-24 01:03
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                          18z定位显示中心已在陆地上
                          90P INVEST 170123 1800 14.3S 135.7E SHEM 20 1003




                          IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端16楼2017-01-24 06:44
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                            GFS 18z


                            IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端17楼2017-01-24 07:00
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                              2025-12-26 14:05:20
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                              中心不明确


                              IP属地:广东来自手机贴吧18楼2017-01-24 07:35
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