LG+OW
如果持续下去C2有望

Dvorak: Eye analysis using EIR imagery has a centre embedded in MG, yielding
DT=4.5. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of
4.0. This pattern has been consistent for the last several hours and so
CI=FT=4.0. No recent SATCON guidance, but in absence of noticeable improvement
in satellite features and microwave/sat wind guidance, setting intensity at
60knots [10-min mean].
Shear remains low. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean heat
content is high. The environment is favourable for intensification at at least
the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.
环境不错，有望在近岸爆发增强至澳式C3


某测站测得阵风62kts,持续风51kts

澳大利亚西北部海域热带气旋“奥尔文”（Olwyn）的中心今天（12日）下午2点钟（北京时间，下同）位于澳大利亚西部埃克斯茅斯（Exmouth）北偏东方大约265公里的洋面上，就是南纬19.6度、东经114.7度，中心附近最大风力有11级（31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级），中心最低气压为980百帕。
预计，“奥尔文”将以每小时20公里的速度地向南偏西方向移动，并将于13日凌晨前后在埃克斯茅斯附近沿海登陆，登陆后转为南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

A. OLWYN (19S)
B. 12/0832Z
C. 20.45S
D. 114.50E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS: PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/ MG SURR YIELDS 4.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD 4.0. DBO MET. NO CLOSED EYEWALL OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PATRICK

BOM升格澳式C3

这是要生生卷眼的节奏？

TPXS12 PGTW 121234
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (OLWYN)
B. 12/1132Z
C. 21.16S
D. 114.00E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0657Z 20.07S 114.80E MMHS
12/0736Z 20.05S 114.68E SSMI
BERMEA

03W BAVI 150312 1200 8.4N 164.6E WPAC 35 996
17P PAM 150312 1200 14.2S 169.9E SHEM 135 922
19S OLWYN 150312 1200 21.3S 114.1E SHEM 65 974

莫非。。

葩

A. OLWYN (19S)
B. 12/1201Z
C. 21.06S
D. 114.09E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE W/ LG SURR (-.5 EA FOR ELONGATED DG PIXEL) YIELDS 4.5 DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO MET DUE TO FLUCTUATIONS IN EYE TEMP OVER PAST FEW HRS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PATRICK

其实看起来形态还可以啦

OW+B了

已经不是云卷风眼了，是真正风眼。

Learmonth机场站迅速掉压中，估计可以进风眼，希望有个好表现