发展不错

老J评价45，登陆前上望65，有望脱水

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South, 116.0 degrees East , 435 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 590 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth .
Movement: south at 10 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it approaches the west Pilbara coast. Olwyn will be near the west Pilbara coast early on Friday morning with landfall expected between Exmouth and Mardie. The system will then continue to move towards the south and weaken.

A. OLWYN (19S)
B. 11/1432Z
C. 13.65S
D. 115.70E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. .95 WRAP YIELDS 3.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET IS 3.0. DBO DT. COR LINE B.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1313Z 17.50S 115.65E TRMM
11/1419Z 17.63S 115.75E MMHS
PATRICK

云卷眼一枚

mg+mg
TXXS27 KNES 120045
TCSSIO
A. 19S (OLWYN)
B. 12/0001Z
C. 18.7S
D. 115.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON MG RING WITH MG EYE EMBEDDED BY
LG. PT=3.5. MET=3.0. SED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

MG+OW

这货能增强到这种强度，我想是很多人没想到的
另外这货彻底打了GFS的脸，GFS昨天只是预测增强至TS下限

还是这个对澳大利亚威胁最大，目前挤眉弄眼呢

Barrow Island，按照预报的话，OLWYN会经过这个岛,不过还没进入眼墙，另外这个测站已经测得39kt的十分钟风速，海拔在十米以下。海压也已经降到1000pha以下。

西澳州皮尔巴拉地区人口很少，基本每年都有热带气旋登陆西澳州。

SH, 19, 2015031206, , BEST, 0, 198S, 1148E, 65, 974, TY, 50, NEQ, 60, 65, 55, 50, 1007, 200, 30, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, OLWYN, D,

C1达成，现在就看看实测咋样了

Barrow Island已测得49kt的十分钟持续风速
海压995pha