我就知道

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 11/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 116.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/6HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 11/1200: 16.8S 116.0E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 999
+12: 11/1800: 17.3S 115.8E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 997
+18: 12/0000: 18.0S 115.5E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 997
+24: 12/0600: 19.0S 115.1E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 994
+36: 12/1800: 21.0S 114.7E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 13/0600: 23.4S 114.3E: 130 [235]: 055 [100]: 985
+60: 13/1800: 26.1S 115.0E: 150 [275]: 035 [065]: 999
+72: 14/0600: 30.5S 117.4E: 165 [310]: 030 [055]: 1003
+96: 15/0600: 35.1S 123.9E: 210 [390]: 025 [045]: 1001
+120: 16/0600: : : :
巅峰澳式C2

C1达成，现在就看看实测咋样了

Dvorak: Eye analysis using EIR imagery has a centre embedded in MG, yielding
DT=4.5. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of
4.0. This pattern has been consistent for the last several hours and so
CI=FT=4.0. No recent SATCON guidance, but in absence of noticeable improvement
in satellite features and microwave/sat wind guidance, setting intensity at
60knots [10-min mean].
Shear remains low. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean heat
content is high. The environment is favourable for intensification at at least
the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.
环境不错，有望在近岸爆发增强至澳式C3


某测站测得阵风62kts,持续风51kts

登陆前达到C2，85kts

OLWYN也是聪明，竟然贴着海岸线走，减弱缓慢，倒是这些沿海城市遭殃了==