TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280757 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 983HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 171.4E
AT 280600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND SECONDARY
WHITE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREE
CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.65-0.75 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND, RESULTING IN DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON PT THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTs SOUTH OF 25S AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.8S 174.6E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.9S 178.8E MOV SE AT 21 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 29.7S 176.0W MOV SE AT 24 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 34.1S 169.5W MOV SE AT 27 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 201400UTC.

感觉风切谷跟滚木了一样

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海 签发：张 玲 2026 年 02 月 28 日 18 时
“厄米尔”向东南方向移动
时 间: 2月28日14时（北京时，下同）
海 域: 南太平洋
命 名: “厄米尔”，URMIL
中心位置: 南纬21.0度，东经171.4度
强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）
最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级
中心气压: 983百帕
参考位置: 距离南太平洋瓦努阿图维拉港东南方向约490公里
变化过程: “厄米尔”过去24小时由8级增强为10级
预报结论: 预计，“厄米尔”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强

图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月28日14时00分）

GFS 00Z预报的06Z的风切情况如下
IFS、HWRF和HAFS-A预报的情况和这个差不多

TPPS11 PGTW 280908
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL)
B. 28/0830Z
C. 20.36S
D. 173.35E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YILEDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/0625Z 20.63S 172.05E MMWI
THOMPSON

终于开始卷绕了是吗

目前是被切崩了吗

目前本人强度收束，上望75

还在肘

构建风眼中，眼径看起来不算大

能上望mh吗？