WTPS11 NFFN 281800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 281951 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 981HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.7S 174.8E AT 281800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
LLCC AND BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH NOW WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM
LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND LOWER CONVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST
IS AROUND 27 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND, YIELDS DT = 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR,
COOLER SST AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 24.1S 178.5E MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 27.5S 176.9W MOV AT KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK:
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010200UTC.
