TXPS41 PHFO 272345
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2335 UTC FRI FEB 27 2026
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 09F (23P)
B. 27/2300Z
C. 20.2S
D. 170.3E
E. HIMAWARI-9
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. MET
YIELDS 4.0. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO A LACK OF
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
LF/CQ

FKPS01 NFFN 280054
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20260228/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: URMIL
ADVISORY NR: 2026/5
OBS PSN: 28/0000Z S2042 E17036
CB: WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: SE 14KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 983HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/0600 S2106 E17142
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/1200 S2154 E17312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 28/1800 S2248 E17448
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/0000 S2412 E17648
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20260228/0700Z

仍在挨切

根据底层和动图，我合理推测这个是眼区

不应该是CCC吗？为什么分析是CDO

暖一下帖子

海温还能撑一会

TPPS11 PGTW 280306
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL)
B. 28/0230Z
C. 20.75S
D. 171.22E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2217Z 19.90S 170.50E GPMI
THOMPSON

Urmil接入西风急流，海温逐渐降低，CHP6预测Urmil的巅峰强度已基本确定
CHP6模拟Urmil最终路径

看看能不能在风切略有松口，流出很好，海温还能撑一下的情况下小蒸一下了

想象一下8月底本该是dyyz的台风因为副高压不住，“过早北上”到了北纬十八度菲东洋面，只有28度的海温抵抗不了风切然后EMBC收场，南半球暖水铺到的纬度是真的低