ACE：32.1975

所以正巅峰是在8.16.14:40z吗？

23/12z没人发啊，这是18z的
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 44N45W 968 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. WITHIN 180 NM SE...240 NM
S...150 NM W AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 55 TO 70 KT. SEAS 8.5
TO 14 M...HIGHEST NEAR 41N45W. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE...300 NM W AND 180 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO
55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM E...480 NM
S...420 NM W AND 300 NM N QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO
8 M...HIGHEST S AND SW OF LOW. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 49N E OF
62W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA NEAR 52N28W 952 MB. FROM 46N TO
53N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 9 M. ALSO
FROM 44N TO 55N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5
TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE E OF A LINE FROM 56N53W TO 39N42W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6.5 M IN MIXED SWELL...HIGHEST SW OF LOW
NEAR 35W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 57N20W 958 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 50N35W TO 57N51W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 54N35W.

值得注意的一点：昨天的风场扫描里，ASCAT、OSCAT、AMSR、SMAP全部没有扫到明确的65kt+区域，因此我们怀疑OPC高估了，且中途风速可能降到过60kt

没有超强温气形态了

补发OPC 12z
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 42N51W 964 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM S AND W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 55 TO 75 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 M. ALSO WITHIN 300
NM E AND SE QUADRANTS AND 240 NM W AND NW SEMICIRCLES...WINDS 40
TO 55 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 46N BETWEEN 43W
AND 63W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO
47N BETWEEN 37W AND 65W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 50N31W 956 MB. FROM 46N TO 52N
BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS FROM 41N TO 54N
BETWEEN 35W AND 44W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 8 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 56N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 59N20W 960 MB. FROM 46N TO 57N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5 M.
ELSEWHERE N OF 45N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4 M...HIGHEST NEAR 56N38W.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 47N40W 970 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS...AND FROM 43N TO 46N BETWEEN 42W AND 40W...WINDS 55 TO
70 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10.5 M...HIGHEST NEAR 43N42W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM SW QUADRANT...WITHIN 120 NM NW AND W OF A FRONT FROM LOW
CENTER TO 48N40W TO 50N37W...AND WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE
FROM 42N35W TO 40N40W TO LOW CENTER TO 48N35W TO 42N35W...WINDS
40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 TO 12 M...HIGHEST NEAR 42N42W...EXCEPT
PORTIONS N OF LOW CENTER SEAS 3 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600 NM S
SEMIRCIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
420 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST
FROM 47N TO 49N. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM
37N35W TO 31N41W TO 31N77W TO 39N73W TO 48N53W TO 37N35W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST WITHIN 720 NM SW
QUADRANT OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA 54N26W 953 MB. WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 47N35W TO 52N40W TO 56N35W TO 47N35W
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 42N35W TO 42N40W TO 57N48W TO 57N35W TO
42N35W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.5 M...EXCEPT N 55N SEAS 2
TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N35W TO
31N54W TO 38N54W TO 48N48W TO 57N57W TO 57N35W TO 31N35W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 6 M...HIGHEST NEAR 42N35W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A
LINE FROM 45N35W TO 35N44W TO 52N50W TO 62N53W TO 66N35W TO
45N35W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N
TO 45N BETWEEN 45W AND 35W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M.

昨晚和今早的风场，两张都是C星，B星昨晚的扫偏了，今早的有点卡图

我们发现Erin一己之力把北大8月ACE刷进了前10！

楼中楼写不下，在这里回复一下3115楼：
并非如此，首先昨天扫偏的ASCAT在12z前后扫出东南象限的急流边缘存在65，反倒是今天00z的风场扫描开始不再支持65及更高，按照数值预报这货本该在转温后风速逐步回落至65以下，之后重新加强迎来二巅，但昨天却发生了一点小插曲，OPC在昨天06z~12z给出了一个70升75的小加强，这并非子虚乌有，仔细看一下昨天06z~14z的云图，会发现这货在经历之前的一次结构瓦解后显著收紧了RMW，当时这个结构很适合冲风速，同时云图上有清晰可见的sting jet活动，这种高风速的小结构需要分辨率较高的风场扫描才能看出有效极值，但不巧的是昨天12z前后来的B星和C星都没正中，而starnesdis站点公开的AMSR2和SMAP的产品都是高度平滑过的，对于这种小环流结构基本无效，考虑到中小环流温带系统出sting jet往往极大风速都不一般，这货昨天06z-12z之间冲到75~85都是有一定可能的，估计OPC注意到了sting jet的出现，但和咱们一样也没有更多的证据能证明12z的实际强度，所以偏保守地给了75，由于18z前后不稳定的冷供应再次崩溃，这货的结构又被打掉重做，RMW也马上变松散了，所以风速也很快地掉下来了，不过18z大概还有65，但是随着今天中午强冷供应逐渐接入，正式的温二巅也即将开始，今天06z很可能会重回65左右，目前能证实应该只有00z风速小于65，应该是60上下，所以OPC减弱段高估的老毛病又犯了，但不是在昨天，而是在今天

二巅爆发在几个小时前开始，数值模拟认为现在(06z)基本上就是风速巅，气压巅应该在12~24h后