Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 24 hours, as witnessed by a cross-track spread of 130 km. Majority of the model guidance, including the multi-model consensus are now indicating landfall over western Taiwan, with just ECMWF ensemble, JGSM and UKMET ensemble keeping the track entirely over the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, track forecast uncertainty increases in regard to the timeline of the westward turn, and the subsequent landfall over mainland China, as witnessed by a 287 km cross-track spread at landfall.
Intensity guidance is in fair agreement as well, with all guidance indicating that Danas has already or will soon reach peak intensity and indicating consistent weakening throughout the forecast period.
JTWC intensity forecast is assessed with only medium confidence, due to the possibility of the storm staying over warm waters of Taiwan Strait and therefore being able to maintain structural integrity of the vortex and convective bending, despite the detrimental impacts of land interaction.
Warning Number 10. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Intensity guidance is in fair agreement as well, with all guidance indicating that Danas has already or will soon reach peak intensity and indicating consistent weakening throughout the forecast period.
JTWC intensity forecast is assessed with only medium confidence, due to the possibility of the storm staying over warm waters of Taiwan Strait and therefore being able to maintain structural integrity of the vortex and convective bending, despite the detrimental impacts of land interaction.
Warning Number 10. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
