TPXS10 PGTW 141448
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF BROWSE ISLAND)
B. 14/1430Z
C. 14.20S
D. 122.85E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0958Z 13.57S 123.23E SSMS
MUSE

雲捲眼

今天06z的HAFS-A报出的巅峰为160kt，终于“理性”地不再报出超顶超了。从96P阶段HAFS开始计算以来，每一报都认为29S将会达到超顶超强度，甚至有过227kt的夸张预报。从0912z开始到1400z，超顶超报数达到19报，应该是毫无疑问的HAFS服役以来最看好的一个tc。这里不分析为什么这么夸张，仅仅做升格26S以来所有的超顶超报的地面风力巅峰的存档。

睡觉增强大法

卷

NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 29U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.8S
LONGITUDE: 122.8E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (243 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 2 KNOTS (4 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 15/0000: 13.9S 122.5E: 035 (070): 035 (065): 999
+12: 15/0600: 13.9S 121.9E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 997
+18: 15/1200: 13.8S 121.3E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 997
+24: 15/1800: 13.8S 120.5E: 060 (115): 045 (085): 995
+36: 16/0600: 14.1S 119.3E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 991
+48: 16/1800: 14.3S 118.5E: 075 (135): 060 (110): 983
+60: 17/0600: 14.5S 118.5E: 095 (175): 065 (120): 978
+72: 17/1800: 14.7S 119.1E: 120 (225): 055 (100): 987
+96: 18/1800: 15.2S 120.6E: 190 (350): 035 (065): 1000
+120: 19/1800: 15.7S 121.2E: 230 (425): 030 (055): 1001

29S TWENTYNINE 250414 1800 13.6S 122.6E SHEM 45 996

TPXS10 PGTW 141912
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF BROWSE ISLAND)
B. 14/1731Z
C. 13.70S
D. 122.32E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE
TO RAPID STRENGTHENING. RE-ANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

TXXS23 KNES 141750
TCSSIO
A. 29S (NONAME)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 14.0S
D. 122.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET IS
ALSO 2.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
BECAUSE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPXS10 PGTW 142114
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF BROWSE ISLAND)
B. 14/2030Z
C. 14.03S
D. 121.87E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AGREES WITH DT. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

卷进干舌了，不过是在努力恢复的
但是雨带嘛…