昨天的结构看来确实被今早的风切破坏到应该是需要重开了三群xrq分析认为时间很紧，希望接下来环境确实能如gfs预报那样，不过重开也未必是坏事，看小布的发挥了

之前的ow消失

个人感觉纯风切影响成这样有些奇怪，之前海葵也有卷眼迹象后，受风切影响对流迅速崩溃，但海葵很快又爆出新的ccc了，布拉万现在对流却一直起不来，连ccc都没有。很可能昨晚的卷眼时ulcc和llcc不对应，没法形成稳定的cisk机制，刚有cdo迹象时对流就崩溃了，昨晚那几个扫描底层积云线和开始卷眼的对流看着确实是分离的

大皮鸭的云图卡在了07z

悬臂与核心断开了

闹笑话了

大皮鸭恢复了

果然布拉万这名字就是大biao子，调低上望至12布拉万

JTWC 09Z分析维持T3.5
TPPN11 PGTW 090857
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
B. 09/0830Z
C. 11.40N
D. 149.07E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .95 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0312Z 11.15N 149.87E ATMS
HUYNH

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 149.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDS INTERSECTING TOWARD
AN OBSCURED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 090311Z
CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 090530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL COME TO WITHIN 61NM OF ANDERSEN AFB JUST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL
RECEDE EASTWARD AND ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED
BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 156NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 241NM
BY TAU 120 SANS NAVGEM, THE EXTREME LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK - LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NAVGEM - UP TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

布拉万起码得有这个强度吧

bolaven的未来就在今晚了！