袖珍cdo，开针眼可能也是5km那种细针

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.8N 150.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 357 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PAST DAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE TUTT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IMPROVED BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW NOW
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF
29-30 C COUPLED WITH A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER ARE AIDING IN THE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE, WHICH
IS OBSCURING THE LLC. INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 C (OVER 55,000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE
090000Z GUAM SOUNDING) ARE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE VORTICAL HOT TOWERS LIKELY SIGNAL AN
IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. A 082214Z TEMPEST 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION. THIS POSITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS AND IS BASED
ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 082133Z
CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 082330Z
CIMSS AIDT: 57 KTS AT 090130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 OVER WARM SST AND OVER A POOL
OF DEEP WARM WATER, WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GUAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER AND LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WHICH WILL FAVOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DURING THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 70
KNOTS TO 85 KNOTS DURING THIS PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL RI WILL OCCUR AFTER
TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR,
WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 96, TS 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF GUAM,
MESOSCALE MODELS (E.G., HAFS-A) INDICATE GUAM WILL REMAIN UNDER
SPIRAL BANDING (THROUGH TAU 36) ALONG THE

云图更新好慢，10分钟一张。

这台风没啥人气

有没有可能转向来中国呢，如果有大概几号到

TPPN11 PGTW 090257
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
B. 09/0230Z
C. 11.07N
D. 149.97E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HUYNH

这根本就没有所谓的槽性，风场中心只扫到了一部分，“槽”的地方只是大悬臂的下沉罢了，动图来看是在削弱的

构建cdo中
看着核心不大，或许开针眼概率较高？