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TPPN10 PGTW 140005
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (OVER LUZON)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 17.11N
D. 121.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (OVER LUZON)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 17.11N
D. 121.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN
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Invest 95W (Philippine name Dodong) has a MEDIUM chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 1111 km diameter, with extensive gale-force winds over the easternperiphery and a weak core of light winds.
Satellite imagery shows extensive low-level flow wrapping around a broad low-level circulation center (LLCC) exceeding 741 km in diameter with disorganized, building convection over the LLCC.
Microwave imagery shows a broad, building, wrapping convective band to the east of the LLCC. Analysis shows a favorable environment with strong diffluent radial outflow on the southeast edge enhanced by deep easterly flow and moderate equatorial outflow.
There is low (5-15 knot) wind shear through the environment and warm 30-31°C sea surface temperatures. Forecast models are in good agreement that 95W will move northwestward and steadily intensify over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Now that the monsoon circulation is centered over the mountainous region of Luzon, two distinct low pressure regions are evident.
One to the east and the other to the west of Luzon. GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles together with NVGM all show the circulation that deepens to the west of Luzon in the South China Sea will emerge the dominant circulation and eventually become a tropical cyclone that continues to deepen as it tracks northwestward.
The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 1111 km diameter, with extensive gale-force winds over the easternperiphery and a weak core of light winds.
Satellite imagery shows extensive low-level flow wrapping around a broad low-level circulation center (LLCC) exceeding 741 km in diameter with disorganized, building convection over the LLCC.
Microwave imagery shows a broad, building, wrapping convective band to the east of the LLCC. Analysis shows a favorable environment with strong diffluent radial outflow on the southeast edge enhanced by deep easterly flow and moderate equatorial outflow.
There is low (5-15 knot) wind shear through the environment and warm 30-31°C sea surface temperatures. Forecast models are in good agreement that 95W will move northwestward and steadily intensify over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Now that the monsoon circulation is centered over the mountainous region of Luzon, two distinct low pressure regions are evident.
One to the east and the other to the west of Luzon. GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles together with NVGM all show the circulation that deepens to the west of Luzon in the South China Sea will emerge the dominant circulation and eventually become a tropical cyclone that continues to deepen as it tracks northwestward.
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